Trends Lab
Scenario hit rates, always shown with the sample size that produced them.
384 scenarios · 0 with a sample of 12 or more
Hit rate distribution
Where the filtered scenarios sit. A pile near 50% means no signal.
A high hit rate on six games is a coincidence with good marketing. Filter to a sample of 12 or more before acting on anything here.
Scenarios
Click a subject to open their profile.
| Subject | Scenario | Market | Sample | Hit rate | Mean | Median | Caveat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Mercer GBplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=2 | 84% | 50.4 | 98.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Dane Ferris DENplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=7 | 84% | 54.9 | 36.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Grant Calder SEAplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=6 | 84% | 64.4 | 27.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Kobe Monroe HOUplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=7 | 84% | 74.9 | 21.4 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Caleb Bishop HOUplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=3 | 84% | 64.9 | 48.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Marcus Quinn NEplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=5 | 84% | 41.9 | 50.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| NOteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=5 | 84% | 37.9 | 35.0 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| NYGteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=3 | 84% | 22.9 | 23.2 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Silas Whitfield PITplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=6 | 83% | 30.8 | 77.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Brock Harrow BALplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=8 | 83% | 95.8 | 77.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Kobe Brooks NYJplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=2 | 83% | 20.8 | 49.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Caleb Okafor LVplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=9 | 83% | 98.3 | 38.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Isiah Doyle PHIplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=9 | 83% | 86.3 | 78.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Devin Harrow LACplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=3 | 83% | 55.3 | 81.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Nico Reyes INDplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=8 | 83% | 39.8 | 91.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| DENteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=2 | 83% | 37.8 | 22.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| INDteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=9 | 83% | 37.8 | 33.4 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Kobe Brooks ARIplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=7 | 82% | 71.7 | 97.2 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Rashad Brooks JAXplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=5 | 82% | 86.7 | 28.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Tariq Reyes SEAplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=7 | 82% | 75.7 | 64.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Amari Ellison MINplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=4 | 82% | 92.2 | 53.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| TBteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=5 | 82% | 22.7 | 28.7 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| TENteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=5 | 82% | 37.7 | 29.6 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Kobe Brooks ARIplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=5 | 81% | 93.1 | 98.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Brock Harrow PITplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=5 | 81% | 61.1 | 89.4 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Devin Sterling CARplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=8 | 81% | 68.6 | 56.2 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Jalen Lang JAXplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=6 | 81% | 27.6 | 55.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Elijah Harrow KCplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=3 | 81% | 72.1 | 42.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Dane Kingsley KCplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=6 | 81% | 95.6 | 61.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Kobe Brooks NYJplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=6 | 81% | 67.6 | 45.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| CARteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=9 | 81% | 32.6 | 32.6 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| LACteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=3 | 81% | 27.6 | 28.8 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| LARteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=3 | 81% | 32.6 | 18.3 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Micah Bishop NOplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=9 | 80% | 53.5 | 84.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Isiah Doyle PHIplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=5 | 80% | 51.5 | 87.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Cade Battle LACplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=4 | 80% | 85.0 | 52.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| BALteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=9 | 80% | 37.5 | 25.3 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| DENteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=2 | 80% | 22.5 | 31.3 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| HOUteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=10 | 80% | 27.5 | 31.6 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| JAXteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=2 | 80% | 27.5 | 35.8 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| NYJteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=6 | 80% | 22.5 | 19.9 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Tariq Reyes SEAplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=6 | 79% | 52.4 | 54.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Tariq Vance NEplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=2 | 79% | 66.4 | 25.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| HOUteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=3 | 79% | 27.4 | 27.8 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Silas Whitfield PITplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=3 | 78% | 43.3 | 49.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Jalen Lang JAXplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=2 | 78% | 36.8 | 92.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Caleb Sylvester TENplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=3 | 78% | 71.3 | 36.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Silas Vance LARplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=6 | 78% | 90.8 | 80.4 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| NOteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=8 | 78% | 32.3 | 30.8 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| SFteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=10 | 78% | 22.3 | 22.9 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| TBteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=9 | 78% | 22.3 | 29.6 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| WASteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=9 | 78% | 32.3 | 33.0 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Kellen Mercer JAXplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=3 | 77% | 25.7 | 66.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Kobe Ellison DENplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=8 | 77% | 82.2 | 63.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Nico Vance WASplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=5 | 77% | 22.7 | 44.2 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Nico Quinn ATLplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=3 | 77% | 85.7 | 94.4 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Zion Ferris MIAplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=7 | 77% | 63.7 | 30.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| BUFteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=8 | 77% | 22.2 | 27.2 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| DETteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=3 | 77% | 37.2 | 36.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| NEteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=7 | 77% | 37.2 | 22.9 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Nico Ferris NOplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=7 | 76% | 54.1 | 77.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Jaxon Nakamura DALplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=2 | 76% | 33.6 | 58.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Marcus Doyle KCplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=3 | 76% | 32.1 | 72.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Tariq Kingsley LVplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=5 | 76% | 41.1 | 59.2 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Dane Whitfield BUFplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=3 | 76% | 40.1 | 49.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| DALteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=3 | 76% | 37.1 | 26.4 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| JAXteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=8 | 76% | 32.1 | 35.7 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| NOteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=2 | 76% | 27.1 | 29.9 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Reed Mercer ATLplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=8 | 75% | 63.0 | 19.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Isiah Duval INDplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=5 | 75% | 63.5 | 87.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| LACteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=10 | 75% | 32.0 | 17.8 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| PITteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=5 | 75% | 27.0 | 31.0 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Roman Pryor ARIplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=6 | 74% | 32.4 | 34.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Amari Sylvester PITplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=9 | 74% | 23.9 | 56.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Nico Ferris NOplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=4 | 74% | 59.4 | 83.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Jaxon Whitfield NYGplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=9 | 74% | 79.9 | 65.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Amari Ellison MINplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=3 | 74% | 28.9 | 39.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Marcus Quinn NEplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=6 | 74% | 84.4 | 57.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Tariq Reyes BUFplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=2 | 74% | 94.4 | 82.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Reed Hayes CLEplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=5 | 73% | 60.3 | 64.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Amari Alvarez JAXplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=7 | 73% | 25.3 | 88.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Dane Ferris DENplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=2 | 73% | 48.8 | 73.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Zion Calder WASplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=3 | 73% | 91.3 | 62.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Caleb Brooks SEAplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=7 | 73% | 73.3 | 28.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Micah Sylvester LACplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=6 | 73% | 70.8 | 77.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Kellen Reyes LARplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=9 | 73% | 66.3 | 50.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Nico Quinn ATLplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=7 | 73% | 65.3 | 73.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Devin Alvarez INDplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=4 | 73% | 93.8 | 61.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| ATLteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=4 | 73% | 36.8 | 20.3 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| GBteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=8 | 73% | 36.8 | 24.4 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| NYJteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=6 | 73% | 21.8 | 28.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| PITteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=7 | 73% | 26.8 | 33.3 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Rashad Sylvester CHIplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=3 | 72% | 89.7 | 25.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Roman Battle TENplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=4 | 72% | 48.2 | 88.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Jaxon Calder LARplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=6 | 72% | 45.2 | 74.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Owen Lang SFplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=8 | 72% | 58.2 | 49.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| GBteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=8 | 72% | 31.7 | 24.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| TENteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=5 | 72% | 26.7 | 21.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Jalen Bishop PITplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=3 | 71% | 84.1 | 62.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| DETteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=4 | 71% | 26.6 | 27.0 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| JAXteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=6 | 71% | 31.6 | 20.8 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| NEteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=6 | 71% | 36.6 | 21.6 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Caleb Sylvester CINplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=5 | 70% | 43.5 | 50.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Zion Doyle SFplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=9 | 70% | 65.5 | 94.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Kobe Monroe HOUplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=6 | 70% | 86.0 | 88.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| LARteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=2 | 70% | 21.5 | 20.0 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| SFteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=6 | 70% | 36.5 | 31.6 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| TENteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=5 | 70% | 31.5 | 28.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Cade Brooks CARplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=8 | 69% | 73.4 | 90.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Devin Sterling CARplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=5 | 69% | 41.9 | 61.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Micah Sterling WASplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=8 | 69% | 61.4 | 56.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Trey Kingsley TBplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=3 | 69% | 44.9 | 97.4 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Reed Mercer PHIplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=7 | 69% | 26.9 | 25.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| CARteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=5 | 69% | 36.4 | 35.1 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| CINteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=9 | 69% | 26.4 | 21.4 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| LVteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=5 | 69% | 21.4 | 31.0 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| TBteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=4 | 69% | 31.4 | 29.3 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Amari Monroe GBplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=6 | 68% | 30.8 | 23.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Zion Calder CLEplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=9 | 68% | 54.3 | 41.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Marcus Doyle KCplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=6 | 68% | 66.8 | 76.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Caleb Sylvester CINplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=8 | 68% | 71.8 | 87.4 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Roman Battle CINplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=2 | 68% | 84.8 | 78.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Silas Vance LARplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=4 | 68% | 69.8 | 58.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Trey Ferris NYGplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=5 | 68% | 80.3 | 67.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Reed Kingsley MIAplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=8 | 68% | 39.8 | 71.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Zion Whitfield INDplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=5 | 68% | 72.3 | 77.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| CINteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=5 | 68% | 31.3 | 29.1 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| LVteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=3 | 68% | 31.3 | 36.8 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Cade Brooks CARplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=6 | 67% | 25.2 | 77.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Tariq Duval DENplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=2 | 67% | 91.2 | 31.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Tariq Kingsley LVplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=3 | 67% | 57.7 | 84.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Rashad Pryor MINplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=4 | 66% | 62.6 | 29.4 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| NEteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=6 | 66% | 31.1 | 28.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Brock Lang LARplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=4 | 65% | 41.0 | 85.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Nico Reyes INDplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=4 | 65% | 41.0 | 70.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Micah Ellison DETplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=7 | 65% | 40.5 | 80.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| KCteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=7 | 65% | 26.0 | 19.0 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Owen Lang CARplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=8 | 64% | 73.4 | 65.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Marcus Calder TENplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=5 | 64% | 21.9 | 77.2 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Kellen Duval NYGplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=5 | 64% | 61.9 | 66.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| GBteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=5 | 64% | 30.9 | 21.7 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| PHIteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=9 | 64% | 20.9 | 34.4 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Jalen Okafor DALplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=7 | 63% | 85.3 | 74.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Amari Alvarez JAXplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=9 | 63% | 66.3 | 97.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Amari Sylvester BALplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=5 | 63% | 56.3 | 32.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Marcus Nakamura DENplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=7 | 63% | 33.3 | 71.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Tariq Vance NEplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=5 | 63% | 88.3 | 84.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| ARIteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=7 | 63% | 30.8 | 18.1 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| BUFteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=5 | 63% | 35.8 | 31.8 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| CLEteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=9 | 63% | 35.8 | 21.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Silas Doyle CHIplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=8 | 62% | 90.2 | 29.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Jaxon Nakamura DALplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=9 | 62% | 72.7 | 48.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Kobe Sterling LVplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=8 | 62% | 54.2 | 41.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Elijah Ellison CINplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=9 | 62% | 68.7 | 61.2 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Kellen Reyes LARplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=4 | 62% | 48.2 | 42.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| CARteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=10 | 62% | 30.7 | 24.6 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| MINteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=7 | 62% | 30.7 | 27.0 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| NYJteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=10 | 62% | 20.7 | 27.2 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Brock Monroe DALplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=3 | 61% | 20.1 | 64.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Marcus Calder TENplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=7 | 61% | 94.1 | 35.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Dane Whitfield SEAplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=3 | 61% | 80.1 | 94.2 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Zion Ferris MIAplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=6 | 61% | 67.6 | 94.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Caleb Bishop HOUplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=7 | 61% | 98.1 | 25.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Grant Duval HOUplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=9 | 61% | 91.1 | 62.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Devin Alvarez INDplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=2 | 61% | 97.6 | 82.6 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Micah Ellison DETplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=7 | 61% | 82.1 | 50.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| INDteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=4 | 61% | 25.6 | 23.8 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| LVteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=2 | 61% | 35.6 | 23.6 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| LARteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=4 | 61% | 35.6 | 33.1 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| TENteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=7 | 61% | 20.6 | 26.7 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Cade Bishop PHIplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=2 | 60% | 20.0 | 91.4 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Micah Sylvester LACplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=3 | 60% | 94.5 | 64.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Cade Battle LACplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=4 | 60% | 65.0 | 40.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Brock Lang LARplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=9 | 60% | 89.5 | 97.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Isiah Doyle ATLplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=3 | 60% | 22.5 | 83.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Rashad Pryor MINplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=5 | 60% | 59.5 | 34.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| CLEteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=8 | 60% | 20.5 | 26.4 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| MIAteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=10 | 60% | 25.5 | 27.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| PITteam | Red zone touchdown rate at home | offense | n=10 | 60% | 20.5 | 33.7 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| SEAteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=8 | 60% | 35.5 | 27.9 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Brock Harrow BALplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=3 | 59% | 68.9 | 36.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Roman Battle TENplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=3 | 59% | 56.9 | 57.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Jalen Pryor NYGplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=7 | 59% | 58.9 | 48.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Devin Sterling SFplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=8 | 59% | 61.4 | 95.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Silas Quinn GBplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=7 | 58% | 45.3 | 20.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Micah Sterling CLEplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=5 | 58% | 48.3 | 98.3 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Trey Kingsley CHIplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Rushing Yards | n=3 | 58% | 99.3 | 78.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Owen Okafor NOplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=3 | 58% | 87.3 | 82.7 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Devin Monroe NOplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Rush Attempts | n=5 | 58% | 32.3 | 67.4 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Caleb Sylvester TENplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=4 | 58% | 97.8 | 42.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Marcus Calder CINplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=3 | 58% | 23.3 | 52.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Jaxon Whitfield NYGplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=2 | 58% | 20.8 | 21.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Cade Brooks SFplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Passing Yards | n=7 | 58% | 57.3 | 59.8 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Isiah Hayes DETplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=4 | 58% | 33.8 | 47.5 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| DENteam | Pass rate over expectation when trailing | tendency | n=8 | 58% | 25.3 | 28.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| LACteam | Opponent WR receiving yards allowed | defense | n=4 | 58% | 35.3 | 24.9 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| SEAteam | Team total over rate as favorite | market | n=6 | 58% | 25.3 | 30.5 | Demo sample - small sample sizes are not strong evidence |
| Caleb Okafor LVplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Receptions | n=7 | 57% | 55.7 | 42.1 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Elijah Lang LVplayer | Over rate when team is an underdog | Pass Attempts | n=7 | 56% | 26.1 | 53.0 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |
| Jalen Pryor NYGplayer | Over rate in last 5 games | Receiving Yards | n=7 | 56% | 38.1 | 27.9 | Demo sample - interpret with sample size in mind |