Props board

Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.

Model
147 props · 88 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability

Week 1 props

Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.

GameDiffImplied %EV / 1uQualityDecision
Cooper Rush
QB · ATL
ATL @ PITPassing Yards182.5134.3-48.284%50%+34.1 pp+0.683u
sparse datalow conf
Pass
Malik Willis
QB · MIA
MIA @ LVPass Attempts26.520.4-6.184%51%+33.5 pp+0.662u
sparse datalow conf
Pass
Bhayshul Tuten
RB · JAX
CLE @ JAXRushing Yards44.531.0-13.581%50%+30.7 pp+0.614u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Aaron Rodgers
QB · PIT
ATL @ PITPassing Yards112.5163.3+50.878%50%+27.8 pp+0.555u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Bhayshul Tuten
RB · JAX
CLE @ JAXRush Attempts8.56.8-1.772%50%+22.2 pp+0.445u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Bijan Robinson
RB · ATL
ATL @ PITReceptions2.53.5+1.072%50%+22.2 pp+0.444u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Woody Marks
RB · HOU
BUF @ HOURushing Yards25.536.0+10.572%52%+20.4 pp+0.395u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Michael Mayer
TE · LV
MIA @ LVReceiving Yards39.531.4-8.168%47%+20.4 pp+0.430u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Keenan Allen
WR · IND
BAL @ INDReceiving Yards27.538.6+11.170%50%+19.9 pp+0.400u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Aaron Rodgers
QB · PIT
ATL @ PITPass Attempts43.536.5-7.069%50%+19.1 pp+0.381u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
David Montgomery
RB · HOU
BUF @ HOURush Attempts13.511.3-2.267%49%+18.7 pp+0.386u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Lamar Jackson
QB · BAL
BAL @ INDRushing Yards40.532.8-7.768%50%+17.7 pp+0.350u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Alec Pierce
WR · IND
BAL @ INDReceiving Yards42.557.5+15.068%51%+17.3 pp+0.342u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Chuba Hubbard
RB · CAR
CHI @ CARRush Attempts12.510.8-1.764%47%+17.3 pp+0.368u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Kenneth Gainwell
RB · TB
TB @ CINReceptions3.53.9+0.459%43%+16.1 pp+0.374u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
David Montgomery
RB · HOU
BUF @ HOURushing Yards56.549.3-7.262%45%+16.1 pp+0.353u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Luther Burden III
WR · CHI
CHI @ CARReceptions4.53.9-0.662%47%+15.3 pp+0.327u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Lamar Jackson
QB · BAL
BAL @ INDRush Attempts6.55.7-0.863%48%+14.9 pp+0.311u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Kyle Monangai
RB · CHI
CHI @ CARRushing Yards31.538.9+7.465%50%+14.7 pp+0.295u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Kyle Monangai
RB · CHI
CHI @ CARRush Attempts8.59.2+0.757%42%+14.6 pp+0.347u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Jalen Nailor
WR · LV
MIA @ LVReceiving Yards37.531.0-6.565%50%+14.5 pp+0.291u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Lamar Jackson
QB · BAL
BAL @ INDCompletions17.515.9-1.660%46%+14.5 pp+0.318u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Mark Andrews
TE · BAL
BAL @ INDReceiving Yards35.529.4-6.164%50%+14.3 pp+0.287u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Dalton Schultz
TE · HOU
BUF @ HOUReceptions3.54.3+0.865%50%+14.3 pp+0.285u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Colston Loveland
TE · CHI
CHI @ CARReceptions4.54.0-0.561%47%+14.2 pp+0.305u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Kenneth Gainwell
RB · TB
TB @ CINRushing Yards22.527.5+5.064%50%+14.2 pp+0.284u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Kayshon Boutte
WR · HOU
BUF @ HOUReceiving Yards27.534.4+6.964%50%+14.1 pp+0.284u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Chuba Hubbard
RB · CAR
CHI @ CARRushing Yards50.542.6-7.964%50%+14.1 pp+0.281u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
J.K. Dobbins
RB · DEN
DEN @ KCRush Attempts12.513.6+1.157%43%+14.0 pp+0.322u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Jalen McMillan
WR · TB
TB @ CINReceiving Yards34.540.0+5.560%47%+13.2 pp+0.284u
sparse datalow conf
Pass
Josh Allen
QB · BUF
BUF @ HOUPassing TDs1.51.5-0.050%37%+12.8 pp+0.347u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Dalton Schultz
TE · HOU
BUF @ HOUReceiving Yards34.541.1+6.661%49%+11.9 pp+0.240u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Rome Odunze
WR · CHI
CHI @ CARReceiving Yards39.547.3+7.862%50%+11.6 pp+0.231u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Lamar Jackson
QB · BAL
BAL @ INDPass Attempts26.524.5-2.058%47%+11.5 pp+0.246u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Ja'Marr Chase
WR · CIN
TB @ CINReceptions7.58.0+0.555%44%+11.4 pp+0.261u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Jakobi Meyers
WR · JAX
CLE @ JAXReceiving Yards38.545.4+6.961%50%+11.0 pp+0.221u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Chase Brown
HB · CIN
TB @ CINReceptions3.54.0+0.560%49%+10.7 pp+0.218u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
NO @ DETReceptions4.54.7+0.254%43%+10.7 pp+0.248u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Cade Otton
TE · TB
TB @ CINReceptions3.53.8+0.355%45%+10.6 pp+0.238u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Mason Taylor
TE · NYJ
NYJ @ TENReceptions2.52.8+0.359%48%+10.6 pp+0.219u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
NO @ DETRush Attempts18.516.9-1.659%49%+10.3 pp+0.213u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Kenneth Gainwell
RB · TB
TB @ CINReceiving Yards22.525.9+3.459%49%+10.3 pp+0.211u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Mike Gesicki
TE · CIN
TB @ CINReceiving Yards20.524.3+3.861%51%+9.9 pp+0.195u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Bhayshul Tuten
RB · JAX
CLE @ JAXReceiving Yards24.516.7-7.884%74%+9.6 pp+0.129u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Colston Loveland
TE · CHI
CHI @ CARReceiving Yards54.548.4-6.159%49%+9.5 pp+0.192u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Bucky Irving
RB · TB
TB @ CINRush Attempts14.516.1+1.659%50%+9.3 pp+0.188u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Rome Odunze
WR · CHI
CHI @ CARReceptions3.53.5+0.051%42%+9.3 pp+0.223u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
NO @ DETReceiving Yards30.535.0+4.559%50%+9.1 pp+0.183u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR · JAX
CLE @ JAXReceiving Yards38.545.3+6.861%51%+9.1 pp+0.177u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Juwan Johnson
TE · NO
NO @ DETReceiving Yards41.547.5+6.059%50%+9.0 pp+0.180u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Mike Gesicki
TE · CIN
TB @ CINReceptions2.52.5+0.050%42%+8.7 pp+0.209u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB · JAX
CLE @ JAXRushing Yards99.567.1-32.417%8%+8.7 pp+1.055u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Devaughn Vele
WR · NO
NO @ DETReceiving Yards40.536.3-4.358%50%+8.3 pp+0.165u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Luther Burden III
WR · CHI
CHI @ CARReceiving Yards57.551.5-6.058%50%+8.2 pp+0.164u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Josh Downs
WR · IND
BAL @ INDReceiving Yards46.541.7-4.858%50%+8.1 pp+0.162u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Jameson Williams
WR · DET
NO @ DETReceiving Yards57.564.6+7.158%50%+8.0 pp+0.161u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Devaughn Vele
WR · NO
NO @ DETReceptions3.53.1-0.460%52%+7.7 pp+0.147u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Mason Taylor
TE · NYJ
NYJ @ TENReceiving Yards21.523.8+2.357%49%+7.7 pp+0.156u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Gunnar Helm
TE · TEN
NYJ @ TENReceptions2.52.6+0.153%45%+7.6 pp+0.167u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Jalen Coker
WR · CAR
CHI @ CARReceptions3.53.3-0.255%47%+7.3 pp+0.154u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Bijan Robinson
RB · ATL
ATL @ PITRush Attempts13.514.6+1.157%50%+7.2 pp+0.144u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
DJ Moore
WR · BUF
BUF @ HOUReceptions3.53.5-0.051%44%+6.9 pp+0.156u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR · TB
TB @ CINReceiving Yards47.543.5-4.056%50%+6.9 pp+0.139u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Brenton Strange
TE · JAX
CLE @ JAXReceptions3.53.6+0.153%46%+6.8 pp+0.148u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Cade Otton
TE · TB
TB @ CINReceiving Yards31.535.2+3.757%51%+6.8 pp+0.135u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Tee Higgins
WR · CIN
TB @ CINReceptions4.54.4-0.152%46%+6.7 pp+0.146u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Parker Washington
WR · JAX
CLE @ JAXReceptions4.54.0-0.561%54%+6.6 pp+0.123u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Dalton Kincaid
TE · BUF
BUF @ HOUReceiving Yards38.542.3+3.856%50%+6.5 pp+0.131u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Tyler Shough
QB · NO
NO @ DETPass Attempts33.531.5-2.056%50%+6.5 pp+0.130u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Brenton Strange
TE · JAX
CLE @ JAXReceiving Yards34.539.7+5.259%53%+6.2 pp+0.117u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Khalil Shakir
WR · BUF
BUF @ HOUReceiving Yards36.540.0+3.556%50%+6.1 pp+0.123u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Emeka Egbuka
WR · TB
TB @ CINReceptions4.54.1-0.458%52%+6.1 pp+0.116u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Josh Allen
QB · BUF
BUF @ HOURushing Yards30.532.7+2.255%50%+5.6 pp+0.112u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Jared Goff
QB · DET
NO @ DETPassing Yards260.5276.1+15.656%50%+5.5 pp+0.110u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Brian Robinson Jr.
RB · ATL
ATL @ PITRush Attempts5.55.2-0.355%50%+5.4 pp+0.109u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Jonathan Taylor
RB · IND
BAL @ INDRush Attempts18.519.4+0.954%49%+5.4 pp+0.111u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Jared Goff
QB · DET
NO @ DETPass Attempts33.535.2+1.755%50%+5.3 pp+0.106u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Jonathan Taylor
RB · IND
BAL @ INDReceptions2.52.7+0.256%51%+5.2 pp+0.102u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Jayden Reed
WR · GB
GB @ MINReceptions3.53.6+0.148%43%+4.9 pp+0.115u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · DET
NO @ DETReceptions6.57.0+0.556%51%+4.9 pp+0.097u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
DK Metcalf
WR · PIT
ATL @ PITReceiving Yards48.554.1+5.657%53%+4.8 pp+0.092u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Chase Brown
HB · CIN
TB @ CINReceiving Yards29.528.6-0.948%43%+4.7 pp+0.108u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Ashton Jeanty
RB · LV
MIA @ LVRush Attempts14.515.0+0.553%48%+4.6 pp+0.095u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Chase Brown
HB · CIN
TB @ CINRushing Yards57.561.3+3.855%50%+4.5 pp+0.089u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Caleb Williams
QB · CHI
CHI @ CARCompletions19.519.2-0.352%47%+4.3 pp+0.091u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Alec Pierce
WR · IND
BAL @ INDReceptions2.52.9+0.462%58%+4.3 pp+0.075u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Joe Burrow
QB · CIN
TB @ CINCompletions24.523.9-0.653%48%+4.2 pp+0.088u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Daniel Jones
QB · IND
BAL @ INDPassing Yards233.5243.7+10.254%50%+4.1 pp+0.082u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Travis Etienne Jr.
RB · NO
NO @ DETReceptions2.52.5-0.051%47%+4.1 pp+0.086u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Harold Fannin Jr.
TE · CLE
CLE @ JAXReceptions3.53.8+0.343%39%+4.0 pp+0.104u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Caleb Williams
QB · CHI
CHI @ CARRushing Yards20.521.3+0.853%49%+4.0 pp+0.081u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
D'Andre Swift
RB · CHI
CHI @ CARRushing Yards60.563.7+3.254%50%+3.9 pp+0.079u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Josh Allen
QB · BUF
BUF @ HOUCompletions19.519.2-0.352%48%+3.5 pp+0.073u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR · TB
TB @ CINReceptions4.54.1-0.459%56%+3.4 pp+0.061u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Tyler Warren
TE · IND
BAL @ INDReceptions4.54.6+0.148%44%+3.4 pp+0.077u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Dalton Kincaid
TE · BUF
BUF @ HOUReceptions3.53.3-0.256%52%+3.3 pp+0.064u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Baker Mayfield
QB · TB
TB @ CINCompletions20.520.4-0.151%47%+3.3 pp+0.069u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Baker Mayfield
QB · TB
TB @ CINPassing Yards230.5223.8-6.753%50%+3.2 pp+0.064u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Jared Goff
QB · DET
NO @ DETCompletions22.523.8+1.356%52%+3.2 pp+0.061u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Tyler Warren
TE · IND
BAL @ INDReceiving Yards45.548.4+2.954%51%+3.2 pp+0.062u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Bryce Young
QB · CAR
CHI @ CARPassing Yards209.5203.0-6.553%50%+3.1 pp+0.062u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Jalen Coker
WR · CAR
CHI @ CARReceiving Yards40.538.9-1.653%50%+3.1 pp+0.063u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Chris Olave
WR · NO
NO @ DETReceptions6.56.4-0.148%46%+2.8 pp+0.061u
complete datalow conf
Pass
DJ Moore
WR · BUF
BUF @ HOUReceiving Yards47.545.9-1.652%50%+2.7 pp+0.055u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Dallas Goedert
TE · PHI
WAS @ PHIReceptions3.53.8+0.356%54%+2.6 pp+0.049u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Quinshon Judkins
RB · CLE
CLE @ JAXRushing Yards56.554.9-1.652%50%+2.3 pp+0.047u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Aaron Rodgers
QB · PIT
ATL @ PITCompletions21.020.6-0.452%50%+2.2 pp+0.044u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Jalen McMillan
WR · TB
TB @ CINReceptions2.52.8+0.358%56%+2.1 pp+0.038u
sparse datalow conf
Pass
Daniel Jones
QB · IND
BAL @ INDCompletions22.521.9-0.653%51%+2.1 pp+0.041u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Gunnar Helm
TE · TEN
NYJ @ TENReceiving Yards21.521.6+0.150%48%+1.8 pp+0.036u
complete datalow conf
Pass
C.J. Stroud
QB · HOU
BUF @ HOUCompletions19.519.7+0.249%47%+1.6 pp+0.034u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Caleb Williams
QB · CHI
CHI @ CARPass Attempts32.532.5+0.050%49%+1.6 pp+0.032u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Jameson Williams
WR · DET
NO @ DETReceptions3.53.8+0.357%56%+1.5 pp+0.027u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Trevor Lawrence
QB · JAX
CLE @ JAXCompletions20.520.0-0.548%46%+1.4 pp+0.030u
complete datalow conf
Pass
C.J. Stroud
QB · HOU
BUF @ HOUPass Attempts31.531.2-0.351%50%+1.3 pp+0.027u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Derrick Henry
RB · BAL
BAL @ INDRush Attempts17.517.6+0.149%48%+1.3 pp+0.028u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Daniel Jones
QB · IND
BAL @ INDPass Attempts32.531.9-0.652%51%+1.3 pp+0.026u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Bryce Young
QB · CAR
CHI @ CARCompletions19.519.7+0.249%48%+1.0 pp+0.020u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Josh Allen
QB · BUF
BUF @ HOURush Attempts6.56.6+0.149%48%+0.9 pp+0.019u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Bryce Young
QB · CAR
CHI @ CARPass Attempts30.530.9+0.451%51%+0.9 pp+0.018u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Pat Freiermuth
TE · PIT
ATL @ PITReceptions2.52.6+0.147%46%+0.9 pp+0.019u
complete datalow conf
Pass
D'Andre Swift
RB · CHI
CHI @ CARRush Attempts13.513.6+0.150%49%+0.8 pp+0.016u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Breece Hall
RB · NYJ
NYJ @ TENRush Attempts13.513.6+0.151%50%+0.6 pp+0.013u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Chase Brown
HB · CIN
TB @ CINRush Attempts14.514.6+0.151%50%+0.6 pp+0.011u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Quinshon Judkins
RB · CLE
CLE @ JAXRush Attempts15.515.2-0.352%51%+0.6 pp+0.011u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Bucky Irving
RB · TB
TB @ CINRushing Yards57.558.4+0.951%51%+0.5 pp+0.011u
partial datalow conf
Pass
Baker Mayfield
QB · TB
TB @ CINPass Attempts31.531.8+0.351%51%+0.4 pp+0.008u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Joe Burrow
QB · CIN
TB @ CINPass Attempts34.534.8+0.349%49%+0.3 pp+0.007u
partial datalow conf
Pass
Jerry Jeudy
WR · CLE
CLE @ JAXReceiving Yards24.528.9+4.439%39%+0.3 pp+0.009u
complete datalow conf
Pass
C.J. Stroud
QB · HOU
BUF @ HOUPassing Yards221.5221.9+0.450%50%+0.2 pp+0.003u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Jonathan Taylor
RB · IND
BAL @ INDRushing Yards76.588.3+11.861%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Derrick Henry
RB · BAL
BAL @ INDRushing Yards119.5104.6-14.939%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · DET
NO @ DETReceiving Yards77.583.6+6.155%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Nico Collins
WR · HOU
BUF @ HOUReceiving Yards39.559.3+19.872%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Emeka Egbuka
WR · TB
TB @ CINReceiving Yards39.548.2+8.763%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Ja'Marr Chase
WR · CIN
TB @ CINReceiving Yards109.5102.1-7.445%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Chris Olave
WR · NO
NO @ DETReceiving Yards77.575.0-2.548%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Josh Allen
QB · BUF
BUF @ HOUPassing Yards169.5196.5+27.063%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Bijan Robinson
RB · ATL
ATL @ PITRushing Yards77.578.8+1.351%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Lamar Jackson
QB · BAL
BAL @ INDPassing Yards219.5205.0-14.543%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
NO @ DETRushing Yards119.597.5-22.033%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Caleb Williams
QB · CHI
CHI @ CARPassing Yards169.5200.7+31.265%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Garrett Wilson
WR · NYJ
NYJ @ TENReceiving Yards109.575.9-33.622%
partial datalow conf
Pass
Trevor Lawrence
QB · JAX
CLE @ JAXPassing Yards179.5207.6+28.163%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Joe Burrow
QB · CIN
TB @ CINPassing Yards209.5227.8+18.358%
partial datalow conf
Pass
Tetairoa McMillan
WR · CAR
CHI @ CARReceiving Yards39.551.8+12.366%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Parker Washington
WR · JAX
CLE @ JAXReceiving Yards24.539.5+15.075%
complete datalow conf
Pass