Model Center
v1.0-transparent — a weighted blend of named signals. No black box, no guarantees.
Active version
v1.0-transparent
Every projection stores its version
Signals
6
3 listed but not yet wired in
Projections this week
0
Week 1
Bet-grade calls
0
0 leans · 0 passes
Versions in data
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Signals and weights
The whole engine, in one table.
| Signal | Weight |
|---|---|
Season baseline Prior-season per-game production from the live stats feed. The anchor for everything else. | 30% |
Recent form Last 5 games this season, weighted toward the most recent, to catch a changed role. | 20% |
Expected usageNot in v1 Snap share, route participation, target share and carry share. No live usage feed yet, so this does not move a v1 projection. | — |
Opponent matchupNot in v1 Defensive efficiency, pressure rate and positional funnel. Not enough team game data synced yet, so it does not move a v1 projection. | — |
Game environment Posted game total against the week average, applied as a multiplier. | 25% |
Injury / role change The player’s own designation on the live injury report. Teammate absences are not modelled yet. | 10% |
Home / away Small venue effect, applied as a multiplier. Deliberately kept small. | 2% |
WeatherNot in v1 Game-time wind and precipitation are fetched and displayed, but are not yet an input to the number. | — |
Market anchor Pull toward the posted line, because the market prices information the model cannot see. | 25% |
Weights are fixed for v1 and applied identically to every player. Nothing is fitted after the fact. Signals marked “Not in v1” are shown on the site but do not change any projection yet.
Projection inspector
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How a decision is reached
Edge, confidence and data quality are separate gates.