Model Center
v1.0-transparent — a weighted blend of named signals. No black box, no guarantees.
Active version
v1.0-transparent
Every projection stores its version
Signals
9
All weights sum to 1.00
Projections this week
147
Week 1
Bet-grade calls
62
26 leans · 59 passes
Versions in data
—
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Signals and weights
The whole engine, in one table.
| Signal | Weight |
|---|---|
Season baseline Per-game production across the full season sample. The anchor for everything else. | 30% |
Recent form Last 3-5 games, weighted toward the most recent, to catch a changed role. | 20% |
Expected usage Snap share, route participation, target share and carry share — opportunity before efficiency. | 15% |
Opponent matchup Defensive efficiency, pressure rate and positional funnel of the opponent. | 12% |
Game environment Expected pace, plays, total and projected game script. | 8% |
Injury / role change Teammate absences that shift volume, plus the player's own designation. | 6% |
Home / away Small venue effect. Deliberately kept small — it is a weak signal. | 3% |
Weather Wind and precipitation for outdoor games; ignored in domes. | 3% |
Market anchor A light pull toward the posted line, because the market knows things we do not. | 3% |
Weights are fixed for v1 and applied identically to every player. Nothing is fitted after the fact.
Projection inspector
Pick a projection to see how the number was assembled.
Projection
134.3
Passing Yards
80% range
72.4–196.1
σ 48.2
Market line
182.5
Diff -48.2
Model prob
84.1%
under side
Implied prob
50.0%
From the posted price
Edge
-34.1 pp
+0.683u
Passlow confsparse dataGenerated 9/13/2026, 10:42:59 AM · v1.0-transparent
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How a decision is reached
Edge, confidence and data quality are separate gates.