Season analytics
What the model actually did, graded after the fact. Pregame snapshots are never rewritten.
Graded calls
53
Season to date
Hit rate
55.0%
Recommended sides only
Units
-2.30u
Flat 1u staking
ROI
-20.0%
Return on amount staked
MAE
14.50
Mean absolute projection error
Avg CLV
+0.30
Line value vs close
Weekly performance
Hit rate and units by week.
The dashed line is 52.4% — roughly break-even at standard -110 pricing.
Projection error
Mean absolute error by week. Lower is better.
Confidence buckets
High confidence should outperform low. If it doesn't, confidence is broken.
| Bucket | n | Hit | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| high | 92 | 51% | +3.20u | 150% |
| medium | 29 | 58% | +1.90u | -80% |
| low | 85 | 54% | -0.50u | -120% |
Prop type performance
Where the model earns and where it should stay out.
| Market | n | Hit | MAE | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 73 | 62% | 13.80 | 60% |
| Anytime TD | 92 | 61% | 15.70 | -50% |
| Receiving Yards | 59 | 58% | 13.40 | 20% |
| Targets | 87 | 56% | 15.20 | -100% |
| Passing Yards | 25 | 54% | 17.00 | 80% |
| Pass Attempts | 72 | 51% | 12.70 | -50% |
| Rushing Yards | 76 | 45% | 14.10 | 90% |
Calibration
A 60% call should win about 60% of the time.
Signals working / not working
Average edge captured per signal, graded after the fact.
| Signal | n | Hit | Avg edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| weather | 91 | 60% | +5.10 | Working |
| expected usage | 66 | 55% | +4.60 | Working |
| recent form | 25 | 54% | +4.50 | Working |
| market anchor | 47 | 56% | +2.70 | Working |
| opponent matchup | 39 | 48% | +1.90 | Not working |
Biggest misses
Largest absolute projection errors. Worth reading before trusting a similar call.
Loading graded projections…
These results come from the labelled demo dataset. They demonstrate the grading pipeline, not a real betting record.