Props board
Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.
28 props · 17 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability
Week 3 props
Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.
| Game | Diff | Implied % | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre' Harris WR · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Receiving Yards | 30.5 | 24.0 | -6.5 | 69% | 50% | +19.1 pp | +0.385u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| DJ Moore WR · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Receiving Yards | 49.5 | 64.1 | +14.6 | 66% | 50% | +16.0 pp | +0.321u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Receiving Yards | 57.5 | 75.4 | +17.9 | 66% | 51% | +15.7 pp | +0.311u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Passing Yards | 238.5 | 269.2 | +30.7 | 61% | 50% | +11.0 pp | +0.220u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Rush Attempts | 15.5 | 13.8 | -1.7 | 61% | 52% | +9.5 pp | +0.184u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Khalil Shakir WR · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Receiving Yards | 41.5 | 46.7 | +5.2 | 58% | 50% | +7.8 pp | +0.157u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Rush Attempts | 7.5 | 7.1 | -0.4 | 55% | 47% | +7.4 pp | +0.156u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| DJ Moore WR · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.1 | +0.6 | 61% | 54% | +7.1 pp | +0.132u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.1 | -0.4 | 61% | 55% | +6.2 pp | +0.113u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Tre' Harris WR · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.4 | -0.1 | 53% | 47% | +6.0 pp | +0.128u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Targets | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.9 | 64% | 59% | +5.7 pp | +0.097u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.0 | 51% | 45% | +5.3 pp | +0.117u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Rushing Yards | 57.5 | 54.5 | -3.0 | 54% | 49% | +5.3 pp | +0.107u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Quentin Johnston WR · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Receiving Yards | 35.5 | 38.8 | +3.3 | 56% | 51% | +5.0 pp | +0.098u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Khalil Shakir WR · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.2 | +0.7 | 63% | 58% | +4.9 pp | +0.085u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Justin Herbert QB · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Completions | 19.5 | 19.4 | -0.1 | 50% | 46% | +4.6 pp | +0.101u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Receiving Yards | 36.5 | 39.0 | +2.5 | 55% | 50% | +4.5 pp | +0.090u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Justin Herbert QB · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Pass Attempts | 30.5 | 30.0 | -0.5 | 52% | 48% | +3.7 pp | +0.076u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Quentin Johnston WR · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.9 | +0.4 | 62% | 59% | +3.0 pp | +0.052u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Pass Attempts | 30.5 | 30.4 | -0.1 | 50% | 47% | +2.7 pp | +0.057u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| James Cook III RB · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Rushing Yards | 80.5 | 82.9 | +2.4 | 52% | 50% | +2.3 pp | +0.046u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Justin Herbert QB · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Passing Yards | 227.5 | 223.4 | -4.1 | 52% | 50% | +1.8 pp | +0.036u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Rushing Yards | 33.5 | 32.9 | -0.6 | 52% | 50% | +1.5 pp | +0.031u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.7 | +0.2 | 57% | 56% | +1.4 pp | +0.026u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.3 | -0.2 | 54% | 53% | +1.1 pp | +0.021u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | LAC @ BUF | Receiving Yards | 60.5 | 61.4 | +0.9 | 51% | 50% | +1.0 pp | +0.021u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Completions | 20.5 | 20.8 | +0.3 | 52% | 51% | +0.7 pp | +0.013u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| James Cook III RB · BUF | LAC @ BUF | Rush Attempts | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 52% | 51% | +0.6 pp | +0.012u | complete datalow conf | Pass |