Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · Highmark Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
BUF favoured by 3.0. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 48.5 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
- Zion Duval LACDoubtful
RB · LAC · Knee — Demo injury record for UI development
Backfield vacated. The next back absorbs carries and goal-line work; receiving backs gain targets.
Reported 46d ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB | 58.4 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions, Rush Attempts |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 49.4 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
| James Cook III | RB | 17.1 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.8 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 9.8 | — | — | — | — | Receptions, Targets |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | 4.5 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 4.2 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| DJ Moore | WR | 4.1 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE | 3.1 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 2.9 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Tre' Harris | WR | 2.4 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre' HarrisWR | Receiving Yards | 30.5 | 24.0 | -6.5 | 6.7 – 41.2 | 69% | 50% | +19.1 pp | +0.385u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| DJ MooreWR | Receiving Yards | 49.5 | 64.1 | +14.6 | 17.9 – 110.2 | 66% | 50% | +16.0 pp | +0.321u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Dalton KincaidTE | Receiving Yards | 57.5 | 75.4 | +17.9 | 21.1 – 129.7 | 66% | 51% | +15.7 pp | +0.311u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Josh AllenQB | Passing Yards | 238.5 | 269.2 | +30.7 | 128.7 – 409.6 | 61% | 50% | +11.0 pp | +0.220u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Omarion HamptonRB | Rush Attempts | 15.5 | 13.8 | -1.7 | 6.3 – 21.3 | 61% | 52% | +9.5 pp | +0.184u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Khalil ShakirWR | Receiving Yards | 41.5 | 46.7 | +5.2 | 13.0 – 80.3 | 58% | 50% | +7.8 pp | +0.157u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Josh AllenQB | Rush Attempts | 7.5 | 7.1 | -0.4 | 3.3 – 11.0 | 55% | 47% | +7.4 pp | +0.156u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| DJ MooreWR | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.1 | +0.6 | 1.5 – 6.6 | 61% | 54% | +7.1 pp | +0.132u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Oronde GadsdenTE | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.1 | -0.4 | 1.2 – 5.0 | 61% | 55% | +6.2 pp | +0.113u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Tre' HarrisWR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.4 | -0.1 | 0.9 – 3.9 | 53% | 47% | +6.0 pp | +0.128u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Dalton KincaidTE | Targets | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.9 | 2.4 – 8.8 | 64% | 59% | +5.7 pp | +0.097u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Ladd McConkeyWR | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.0 | 1.7 – 7.2 | 51% | 45% | +5.3 pp | +0.117u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Omarion HamptonRB | Rushing Yards | 57.5 | 54.5 | -3.0 | 19.4 – 89.6 | 54% | 49% | +5.3 pp | +0.107u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Quentin JohnstonWR | Receiving Yards | 35.5 | 38.8 | +3.3 | 10.8 – 66.7 | 56% | 51% | +5.0 pp | +0.098u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Khalil ShakirWR | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.2 | +0.7 | 1.6 – 6.8 | 63% | 58% | +4.9 pp | +0.085u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Justin HerbertQB | Completions | 19.5 | 19.4 | -0.1 | 9.7 – 29.2 | 50% | 46% | +4.6 pp | +0.101u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Oronde GadsdenTE | Receiving Yards | 36.5 | 39.0 | +2.5 | 10.9 – 67.1 | 55% | 50% | +4.5 pp | +0.090u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Justin HerbertQB | Pass Attempts | 30.5 | 30.0 | -0.5 | 15.2 – 44.8 | 52% | 48% | +3.7 pp | +0.076u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Quentin JohnstonWR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.9 | +0.4 | 1.1 – 4.7 | 62% | 59% | +3.0 pp | +0.052u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Josh AllenQB | Pass Attempts | 30.5 | 30.4 | -0.1 | 15.4 – 45.4 | 50% | 47% | +2.7 pp | +0.057u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| James Cook IIIRB | Rushing Yards | 80.5 | 82.9 | +2.4 | 29.6 – 136.3 | 52% | 50% | +2.3 pp | +0.046u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Justin HerbertQB | Passing Yards | 227.5 | 223.4 | -4.1 | 106.9 – 340.0 | 52% | 50% | +1.8 pp | +0.036u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Josh AllenQB | Rushing Yards | 33.5 | 32.9 | -0.6 | 11.7 – 54.0 | 52% | 50% | +1.5 pp | +0.031u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Josh AllenQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.7 | +0.2 | 0.2 – 3.2 | 57% | 56% | +1.4 pp | +0.026u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Dalton KincaidTE | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.3 | -0.2 | 1.6 – 6.9 | 54% | 53% | +1.1 pp | +0.021u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Ladd McConkeyWR | Receiving Yards | 60.5 | 61.4 | +0.9 | 17.2 – 105.6 | 51% | 50% | +1.0 pp | +0.021u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Josh AllenQB | Completions | 20.5 | 20.8 | +0.3 | 10.4 – 31.3 | 52% | 51% | +0.7 pp | +0.013u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| James Cook IIIRB | Rush Attempts | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 7.8 – 26.5 | 52% | 51% | +0.6 pp | +0.012u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.