Props board
Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.
13 props · 7 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability
Week 3 props
Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.
| Game | Diff | Implied % | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | HOU @ IND | Receiving Yards | 50.5 | 43.5 | -7.0 | 61% | 49% | +11.9 pp | +0.241u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | HOU @ IND | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.5 | +0.0 | 52% | 40% | +11.8 pp | +0.297u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Daniel Jones QB · IND | HOU @ IND | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 45% | 36% | +8.6 pp | +0.235u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | HOU @ IND | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.7 | -0.8 | 63% | 56% | +7.5 pp | +0.134u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jaylin Noel WR · HOU | HOU @ IND | Receiving Yards | 26.5 | 29.2 | +2.7 | 56% | 50% | +6.2 pp | +0.123u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| David Montgomery RB · HOU | HOU @ IND | Rush Attempts | 12.5 | 12.9 | +0.4 | 53% | 50% | +3.4 pp | +0.067u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| David Montgomery RB · HOU | HOU @ IND | Rushing Yards | 50.5 | 48.6 | -1.9 | 53% | 50% | +3.1 pp | +0.063u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | HOU @ IND | Passing Yards | 241.5 | 235.1 | -6.4 | 53% | 50% | +2.9 pp | +0.059u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | HOU @ IND | Pass Attempts | 33.5 | 32.6 | -0.9 | 53% | 52% | +1.0 pp | +0.020u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | HOU @ IND | Completions | 20.5 | 21.1 | +0.6 | 47% | 46% | +0.8 pp | +0.017u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Daniel Jones QB · IND | HOU @ IND | Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 31.1 | -0.4 | 49% | 48% | +0.6 pp | +0.011u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Daniel Jones QB · IND | HOU @ IND | Passing Yards | 213.5 | 214.6 | +1.1 | 51% | 50% | +0.5 pp | +0.010u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Daniel Jones QB · IND | HOU @ IND | Completions | 20.5 | 20.3 | -0.2 | 49% | 49% | +0.0 pp | +0.001u | complete datalow conf | Pass |