Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · Lucas Oil Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
HOU favoured by 1.5. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 45.5 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
- Cade Ellison INDQuestionable
RB · IND · Ankle — Demo injury record for UI development
Questionable — treat any volume prop as a live status risk until inactives are posted.
Reported 46d ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 53.7 | — | — | — | — | Completions, Pass Attempts |
| Daniel Jones | QB | 51.4 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
| David Montgomery | RB | 12.9 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 4.7 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton SchultzTE | Receiving Yards | 50.5 | 43.5 | -7.0 | 12.1 – 74.8 | 61% | 49% | +11.9 pp | +0.241u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| C.J. StroudQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.5 | +0.0 | 0.2 – 2.9 | 52% | 40% | +11.8 pp | +0.297u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Daniel JonesQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 – 2.6 | 45% | 36% | +8.6 pp | +0.235u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Dalton SchultzTE | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.7 | -0.8 | 1.8 – 7.7 | 63% | 56% | +7.5 pp | +0.134u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jaylin NoelWR | Receiving Yards | 26.5 | 29.2 | +2.7 | 8.2 – 50.2 | 56% | 50% | +6.2 pp | +0.123u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| David MontgomeryRB | Rush Attempts | 12.5 | 12.9 | +0.4 | 5.9 – 20.0 | 53% | 50% | +3.4 pp | +0.067u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| David MontgomeryRB | Rushing Yards | 50.5 | 48.6 | -1.9 | 17.3 – 79.8 | 53% | 50% | +3.1 pp | +0.063u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| C.J. StroudQB | Passing Yards | 241.5 | 235.1 | -6.4 | 112.4 – 357.8 | 53% | 50% | +2.9 pp | +0.059u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. StroudQB | Pass Attempts | 33.5 | 32.6 | -0.9 | 16.6 – 48.7 | 53% | 52% | +1.0 pp | +0.020u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. StroudQB | Completions | 20.5 | 21.1 | +0.6 | 10.5 – 31.7 | 47% | 46% | +0.8 pp | +0.017u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Daniel JonesQB | Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 31.1 | -0.4 | 15.8 – 46.5 | 49% | 48% | +0.6 pp | +0.011u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Daniel JonesQB | Passing Yards | 213.5 | 214.6 | +1.1 | 102.6 – 326.6 | 51% | 50% | +0.5 pp | +0.010u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Daniel JonesQB | Completions | 20.5 | 20.3 | -0.2 | 10.1 – 30.5 | 49% | 49% | +0.0 pp | +0.001u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.