Props board
Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.
24 props · 17 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability
Week 3 props
Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.
| Game | Diff | Implied % | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Receiving Yards | 25.5 | 16.8 | -8.7 | 84% | 49% | +34.7 pp | +0.703u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Isaiah Williams WR · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 79% | 49% | +29.2 pp | +0.591u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | 79% | 50% | +28.9 pp | +0.576u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Breece Hall RB · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | 78% | 58% | +20.3 pp | +0.350u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Braelon Allen RB · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Rush Attempts | 5.5 | 6.2 | +0.7 | 60% | 43% | +16.6 pp | +0.382u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Geno Smith QB · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | 77% | 62% | +15.4 pp | +0.250u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Geno Smith QB · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Pass Attempts | 32.5 | 28.5 | -4.0 | 64% | 50% | +14.1 pp | +0.282u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Breece Hall RB · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Rushing Yards | 58.5 | 71.7 | +13.2 | 64% | 51% | +13.7 pp | +0.271u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Receiving Yards | 44.5 | 37.5 | -7.0 | 63% | 50% | +12.9 pp | +0.258u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | NYJ @ DET | Rushing Yards | 89.5 | 102.0 | +12.5 | 60% | 51% | +9.0 pp | +0.179u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Receiving Yards | 75.5 | 67.3 | -8.2 | 59% | 50% | +8.7 pp | +0.174u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Geno Smith QB · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Passing Yards | 226.5 | 208.8 | -17.7 | 58% | 50% | +8.5 pp | +0.171u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Breece Hall RB · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Receiving Yards | 21.5 | 19.7 | -1.8 | 56% | 49% | +7.2 pp | +0.146u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Breece Hall RB · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Rush Attempts | 14.5 | 16.4 | +1.9 | 61% | 54% | +7.1 pp | +0.133u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Geno Smith QB · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Completions | 21.5 | 19.8 | -1.7 | 58% | 51% | +7.0 pp | +0.136u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | NYJ @ DET | Receptions | 6.5 | 7.7 | +1.2 | 63% | 56% | +6.9 pp | +0.122u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | NYJ @ DET | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.7 | +0.2 | 54% | 47% | +6.6 pp | +0.139u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | NYJ @ DET | Receptions | 6.5 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 61% | 55% | +6.5 pp | +0.118u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Jameson Williams WR · DET | NYJ @ DET | Receiving Yards | 52.5 | 56.8 | +4.3 | 55% | 50% | +5.4 pp | +0.109u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | NYJ @ DET | Rush Attempts | 18.5 | 20.0 | +1.5 | 57% | 52% | +4.7 pp | +0.091u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Jared Goff QB · DET | NYJ @ DET | Passing Yards | 255.5 | 251.9 | -3.6 | 51% | 50% | +1.7 pp | +0.034u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | NYJ @ DET | Receiving Yards | 35.5 | 34.9 | -0.6 | 51% | 51% | +0.5 pp | +0.011u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | NYJ @ DET | Receiving Yards | 76.5 | 77.7 | +1.2 | 51% | 51% | +0.5 pp | +0.010u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Jared Goff QB · DET | NYJ @ DET | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.9 | +0.4 | 61% | 61% | +0.1 pp | +0.001u | complete datalow conf | Pass |