New York Jets @ Detroit Lions
Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · Ford Field
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
DET favoured by 9.5. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 45.5 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
- Roman Pryor NYJDoubtful
QB · NYJ · Ankle — Demo injury record for UI development
Backup under centre. Passing volume and deep attempts usually fall; rushing attempts usually rise.
Reported 46d ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | QB | 48.4 | — | — | — | — | Completions, Pass Attempts |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 24.7 | — | — | — | — | Receptions, Rush Attempts |
| Breece Hall | RB | 18.9 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts, Receptions |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Braelon Allen | RB | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | 2.5 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Isaiah Williams | WR | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah WilliamsWR | Receiving Yards | 25.5 | 16.8 | -8.7 | 5.6 – 28.0 | 84% | 49% | +34.7 pp | +0.703u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 0.7 – 2.9 | 79% | 49% | +29.2 pp | +0.591u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Adonai MitchellWR | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | 0.9 – 4.1 | 79% | 50% | +28.9 pp | +0.576u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Breece HallRB | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | 1.0 – 4.1 | 78% | 58% | +20.3 pp | +0.350u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Braelon AllenRB | Rush Attempts | 5.5 | 6.2 | +0.7 | 2.8 – 9.5 | 60% | 43% | +16.6 pp | +0.382u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Geno SmithQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | 0.1 – 1.9 | 77% | 62% | +15.4 pp | +0.250u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Geno SmithQB | Pass Attempts | 32.5 | 28.5 | -4.0 | 14.5 – 42.6 | 64% | 50% | +14.1 pp | +0.282u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Breece HallRB | Rushing Yards | 58.5 | 71.7 | +13.2 | 25.6 – 117.8 | 64% | 51% | +13.7 pp | +0.271u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Adonai MitchellWR | Receiving Yards | 44.5 | 37.5 | -7.0 | 10.5 – 64.5 | 63% | 50% | +12.9 pp | +0.258u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | Rushing Yards | 89.5 | 102.0 | +12.5 | 36.4 – 167.6 | 60% | 51% | +9.0 pp | +0.179u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Garrett WilsonWR | Receiving Yards | 75.5 | 67.3 | -8.2 | 18.8 – 115.8 | 59% | 50% | +8.7 pp | +0.174u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Geno SmithQB | Passing Yards | 226.5 | 208.8 | -17.7 | 99.8 – 317.7 | 58% | 50% | +8.5 pp | +0.171u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Breece HallRB | Receiving Yards | 21.5 | 19.7 | -1.8 | 5.5 – 34.0 | 56% | 49% | +7.2 pp | +0.146u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Breece HallRB | Rush Attempts | 14.5 | 16.4 | +1.9 | 7.5 – 25.3 | 61% | 54% | +7.1 pp | +0.133u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Geno SmithQB | Completions | 21.5 | 19.8 | -1.7 | 9.9 – 29.8 | 58% | 51% | +7.0 pp | +0.136u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR | Receptions | 6.5 | 7.7 | +1.2 | 2.9 – 12.5 | 63% | 56% | +6.9 pp | +0.122u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.7 | +0.2 | 1.8 – 7.7 | 54% | 47% | +6.6 pp | +0.139u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Garrett WilsonWR | Receptions | 6.5 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 2.2 – 9.2 | 61% | 55% | +6.5 pp | +0.118u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Jameson WilliamsWR | Receiving Yards | 52.5 | 56.8 | +4.3 | 15.9 – 97.7 | 55% | 50% | +5.4 pp | +0.109u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | Rush Attempts | 18.5 | 20.0 | +1.5 | 9.1 – 30.8 | 57% | 52% | +4.7 pp | +0.091u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Jared GoffQB | Passing Yards | 255.5 | 251.9 | -3.6 | 120.5 – 383.4 | 51% | 50% | +1.7 pp | +0.034u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | Receiving Yards | 35.5 | 34.9 | -0.6 | 9.8 – 60.1 | 51% | 51% | +0.5 pp | +0.011u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR | Receiving Yards | 76.5 | 77.7 | +1.2 | 21.7 – 133.7 | 51% | 51% | +0.5 pp | +0.010u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Jared GoffQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.9 | +0.4 | 0.2 – 3.5 | 61% | 61% | +0.1 pp | +0.001u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.