Props board
Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.
8 props · 4 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability
Week 3 props
Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.
| Game | Diff | Implied % | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dulcich TE · MIA | KC @ MIA | Receiving Yards | 22.5 | 27.5 | +5.0 | 63% | 50% | +12.5 pp | +0.248u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| De'Von Achane RB · MIA | KC @ MIA | Rush Attempts | 15.5 | 14.2 | -1.3 | 58% | 49% | +9.2 pp | +0.188u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Greg Dulcich TE · MIA | KC @ MIA | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | 52% | 43% | +8.6 pp | +0.201u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| De'Von Achane RB · MIA | KC @ MIA | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | 59% | 51% | +8.5 pp | +0.166u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Emmett Johnson RB · KC | KC @ MIA | Rushing Yards | 28.5 | 25.8 | -2.7 | 58% | 50% | +8.4 pp | +0.167u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| De'Von Achane RB · MIA | KC @ MIA | Receiving Yards | 26.5 | 29.4 | +2.9 | 57% | 50% | +6.7 pp | +0.133u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| De'Von Achane RB · MIA | KC @ MIA | Rushing Yards | 60.5 | 64.3 | +3.8 | 55% | 49% | +5.3 pp | +0.107u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Emmett Johnson RB · KC | KC @ MIA | Rush Attempts | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | 56% | 51% | +5.0 pp | +0.097u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |