Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · Hard Rock Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
KC favoured by 7.5. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 44.5 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
- Zion Ferris MIALimited
WR · MIA · Shoulder — Demo injury record for UI development
Questionable — treat any volume prop as a live status risk until inactives are posted.
Reported 46d ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | RB | 18.2 | — | — | — | — | Receptions, Rush Attempts |
| Emmett Johnson | RB | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | 2.5 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg DulcichTE | Receiving Yards | 22.5 | 27.5 | +5.0 | 7.7 – 47.4 | 63% | 50% | +12.5 pp | +0.248u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| De'Von AchaneRB | Rush Attempts | 15.5 | 14.2 | -1.3 | 6.5 – 22.0 | 58% | 49% | +9.2 pp | +0.188u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Greg DulcichTE | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | 1.0 – 4.1 | 52% | 43% | +8.6 pp | +0.201u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| De'Von AchaneRB | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | 1.5 – 6.4 | 59% | 51% | +8.5 pp | +0.166u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Emmett JohnsonRB | Rushing Yards | 28.5 | 25.8 | -2.7 | 9.2 – 42.4 | 58% | 50% | +8.4 pp | +0.167u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| De'Von AchaneRB | Receiving Yards | 26.5 | 29.4 | +2.9 | 8.2 – 50.6 | 57% | 50% | +6.7 pp | +0.133u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| De'Von AchaneRB | Rushing Yards | 60.5 | 64.3 | +3.8 | 22.9 – 105.7 | 55% | 49% | +5.3 pp | +0.107u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Emmett JohnsonRB | Rush Attempts | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | 3.2 – 10.8 | 56% | 51% | +5.0 pp | +0.097u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.