Props board
Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.
28 props · 15 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability
Week 1 props
Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.
| Game | Diff | Implied % | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Gainwell RB · TB | TB @ CIN | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.9 | +0.4 | 59% | 43% | +16.1 pp | +0.374u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Kenneth Gainwell RB · TB | TB @ CIN | Rushing Yards | 22.5 | 27.5 | +5.0 | 64% | 50% | +14.2 pp | +0.284u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Jalen McMillan WR · TB | TB @ CIN | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | 40.0 | +5.5 | 60% | 47% | +13.2 pp | +0.284u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | TB @ CIN | Receptions | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | 55% | 44% | +11.4 pp | +0.261u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Chase Brown HB · CIN | TB @ CIN | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | 60% | 49% | +10.7 pp | +0.218u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Cade Otton TE · TB | TB @ CIN | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.3 | 55% | 45% | +10.6 pp | +0.238u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Kenneth Gainwell RB · TB | TB @ CIN | Receiving Yards | 22.5 | 25.9 | +3.4 | 59% | 49% | +10.3 pp | +0.211u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Mike Gesicki TE · CIN | TB @ CIN | Receiving Yards | 20.5 | 24.3 | +3.8 | 61% | 51% | +9.9 pp | +0.195u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Bucky Irving RB · TB | TB @ CIN | Rush Attempts | 14.5 | 16.1 | +1.6 | 59% | 50% | +9.3 pp | +0.188u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Mike Gesicki TE · CIN | TB @ CIN | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | 50% | 42% | +8.7 pp | +0.209u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB | TB @ CIN | Receiving Yards | 47.5 | 43.5 | -4.0 | 56% | 50% | +6.9 pp | +0.139u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Cade Otton TE · TB | TB @ CIN | Receiving Yards | 31.5 | 35.2 | +3.7 | 57% | 51% | +6.8 pp | +0.135u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Tee Higgins WR · CIN | TB @ CIN | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.4 | -0.1 | 52% | 46% | +6.7 pp | +0.146u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Emeka Egbuka WR · TB | TB @ CIN | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 58% | 52% | +6.1 pp | +0.116u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Chase Brown HB · CIN | TB @ CIN | Receiving Yards | 29.5 | 28.6 | -0.9 | 48% | 43% | +4.7 pp | +0.108u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Chase Brown HB · CIN | TB @ CIN | Rushing Yards | 57.5 | 61.3 | +3.8 | 55% | 50% | +4.5 pp | +0.089u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Joe Burrow QB · CIN | TB @ CIN | Completions | 24.5 | 23.9 | -0.6 | 53% | 48% | +4.2 pp | +0.088u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB | TB @ CIN | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 59% | 56% | +3.4 pp | +0.061u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Baker Mayfield QB · TB | TB @ CIN | Completions | 20.5 | 20.4 | -0.1 | 51% | 47% | +3.3 pp | +0.069u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Baker Mayfield QB · TB | TB @ CIN | Passing Yards | 230.5 | 223.8 | -6.7 | 53% | 50% | +3.2 pp | +0.064u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Jalen McMillan WR · TB | TB @ CIN | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.8 | +0.3 | 58% | 56% | +2.1 pp | +0.038u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Chase Brown HB · CIN | TB @ CIN | Rush Attempts | 14.5 | 14.6 | +0.1 | 51% | 50% | +0.6 pp | +0.011u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Bucky Irving RB · TB | TB @ CIN | Rushing Yards | 57.5 | 58.4 | +0.9 | 51% | 51% | +0.5 pp | +0.011u | partial datalow conf | Pass |
| Baker Mayfield QB · TB | TB @ CIN | Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 31.8 | +0.3 | 51% | 51% | +0.4 pp | +0.008u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Joe Burrow QB · CIN | TB @ CIN | Pass Attempts | 34.5 | 34.8 | +0.3 | 49% | 49% | +0.3 pp | +0.007u | partial datalow conf | Pass |
| Emeka Egbuka WR · TB | TB @ CIN | Receiving Yards | 39.5 | 48.2 | +8.7 | 63% | — | — | — | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | TB @ CIN | Receiving Yards | 109.5 | 102.1 | -7.4 | 45% | — | — | — | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Joe Burrow QB · CIN | TB @ CIN | Passing Yards | 209.5 | 227.8 | +18.3 | 58% | — | — | — | partial datalow conf | Pass |