Props board
Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.
24 props · 11 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability
Week 3 props
Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.
| Game | Diff | Implied % | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Rush Attempts | 16.5 | 11.8 | -4.7 | 84% | 47% | +37.2 pp | +0.793u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Rushing Yards | 70.5 | 47.4 | -23.1 | 83% | 50% | +33.4 pp | +0.667u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Denzel Boston WR · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.8 | -0.7 | 70% | 50% | +19.7 pp | +0.392u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Denzel Boston WR · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Targets | 5.5 | 4.8 | -0.7 | 64% | 46% | +18.0 pp | +0.395u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Receiving Yards | 20.5 | 27.5 | +7.0 | 67% | 50% | +17.5 pp | +0.350u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Targets | 3.5 | 2.8 | -0.7 | 70% | 53% | +17.1 pp | +0.322u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jalen Coker WR · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Targets | 7.5 | 6.1 | -1.4 | 70% | 54% | +16.0 pp | +0.299u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Pass Attempts | 29.5 | 25.8 | -3.7 | 65% | 51% | +13.3 pp | +0.260u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Rushing Yards | 25.5 | 30.6 | +5.1 | 63% | 50% | +13.3 pp | +0.266u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Bryce Young QB · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.8 | +0.3 | 59% | 46% | +13.2 pp | +0.290u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Rushing Yards | 59.5 | 51.5 | -8.0 | 62% | 49% | +13.1 pp | +0.267u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jalen Coker WR · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Receiving Yards | 58.5 | 66.8 | +8.3 | 59% | 49% | +9.8 pp | +0.201u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Completions | 18.5 | 17.1 | -1.4 | 58% | 51% | +6.6 pp | +0.129u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Bryce Young QB · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Pass Attempts | 32.5 | 30.9 | -1.6 | 55% | 50% | +5.8 pp | +0.116u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Denzel Boston WR · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Receiving Yards | 48.5 | 52.4 | +3.9 | 55% | 50% | +5.5 pp | +0.111u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.3 | -0.2 | 39% | 34% | +5.2 pp | +0.153u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.3 | -0.2 | 57% | 53% | +4.5 pp | +0.085u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Bryce Young QB · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Passing Yards | 223.5 | 232.6 | +9.1 | 54% | 50% | +3.5 pp | +0.071u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Darren Waller TE · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Targets | 3.5 | 3.2 | -0.3 | 58% | 54% | +3.5 pp | +0.064u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Darren Waller TE · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.4 | -0.1 | 47% | 44% | +3.2 pp | +0.072u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Passing Yards | 188.5 | 192.9 | +4.4 | 52% | 50% | +2.2 pp | +0.045u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Bryce Young QB · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Completions | 19.5 | 19.1 | -0.4 | 52% | 51% | +1.4 pp | +0.028u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Deshaun Watson QB · CLE | CAR @ CLE | Rush Attempts | 5.5 | 5.6 | +0.1 | 52% | 51% | +1.0 pp | +0.019u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Jalen Coker WR · CAR | CAR @ CLE | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.9 | -0.6 | 60% | 60% | +0.8 pp | +0.013u | complete datalow conf | Pass |