Props board
Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.
20 props · 14 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability
Week 1 props
Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.
| Game | Diff | Implied % | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen WR · IND | BAL @ IND | Receiving Yards | 27.5 | 38.6 | +11.1 | 70% | 50% | +19.9 pp | +0.400u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Lamar Jackson QB · BAL | BAL @ IND | Rushing Yards | 40.5 | 32.8 | -7.7 | 68% | 50% | +17.7 pp | +0.350u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Alec Pierce WR · IND | BAL @ IND | Receiving Yards | 42.5 | 57.5 | +15.0 | 68% | 51% | +17.3 pp | +0.342u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Lamar Jackson QB · BAL | BAL @ IND | Rush Attempts | 6.5 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 63% | 48% | +14.9 pp | +0.311u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Lamar Jackson QB · BAL | BAL @ IND | Completions | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 60% | 46% | +14.5 pp | +0.318u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Mark Andrews TE · BAL | BAL @ IND | Receiving Yards | 35.5 | 29.4 | -6.1 | 64% | 50% | +14.3 pp | +0.287u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Lamar Jackson QB · BAL | BAL @ IND | Pass Attempts | 26.5 | 24.5 | -2.0 | 58% | 47% | +11.5 pp | +0.246u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Josh Downs WR · IND | BAL @ IND | Receiving Yards | 46.5 | 41.7 | -4.8 | 58% | 50% | +8.1 pp | +0.162u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | BAL @ IND | Rush Attempts | 18.5 | 19.4 | +0.9 | 54% | 49% | +5.4 pp | +0.111u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | BAL @ IND | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.2 | 56% | 51% | +5.2 pp | +0.102u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Alec Pierce WR · IND | BAL @ IND | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.9 | +0.4 | 62% | 58% | +4.3 pp | +0.075u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Daniel Jones QB · IND | BAL @ IND | Passing Yards | 233.5 | 243.7 | +10.2 | 54% | 50% | +4.1 pp | +0.082u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Tyler Warren TE · IND | BAL @ IND | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.1 | 48% | 44% | +3.4 pp | +0.077u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Tyler Warren TE · IND | BAL @ IND | Receiving Yards | 45.5 | 48.4 | +2.9 | 54% | 51% | +3.2 pp | +0.062u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Daniel Jones QB · IND | BAL @ IND | Completions | 22.5 | 21.9 | -0.6 | 53% | 51% | +2.1 pp | +0.041u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Derrick Henry RB · BAL | BAL @ IND | Rush Attempts | 17.5 | 17.6 | +0.1 | 49% | 48% | +1.3 pp | +0.028u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Daniel Jones QB · IND | BAL @ IND | Pass Attempts | 32.5 | 31.9 | -0.6 | 52% | 51% | +1.3 pp | +0.026u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | BAL @ IND | Rushing Yards | 76.5 | 88.3 | +11.8 | 61% | — | — | — | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Derrick Henry RB · BAL | BAL @ IND | Rushing Yards | 119.5 | 104.6 | -14.9 | 39% | — | — | — | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Lamar Jackson QB · BAL | BAL @ IND | Passing Yards | 219.5 | 205.0 | -14.5 | 43% | — | — | — | complete datalow conf | Pass |