Props board

Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.

Model
18 props · 10 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability

Week 1 props

Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.

GameDiffImplied %EV / 1uQualityDecision
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
NO @ DETReceptions4.54.7+0.254%43%+10.7 pp+0.248u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
NO @ DETRush Attempts18.516.9-1.659%49%+10.3 pp+0.213u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Under
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
NO @ DETReceiving Yards30.535.0+4.559%50%+9.1 pp+0.183u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Juwan Johnson
TE · NO
NO @ DETReceiving Yards41.547.5+6.059%50%+9.0 pp+0.180u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Devaughn Vele
WR · NO
NO @ DETReceiving Yards40.536.3-4.358%50%+8.3 pp+0.165u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Jameson Williams
WR · DET
NO @ DETReceiving Yards57.564.6+7.158%50%+8.0 pp+0.161u
complete datahigh conf
Bet Over
Devaughn Vele
WR · NO
NO @ DETReceptions3.53.1-0.460%52%+7.7 pp+0.147u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Tyler Shough
QB · NO
NO @ DETPass Attempts33.531.5-2.056%50%+6.5 pp+0.130u
partial datamedium conf
Pass
Jared Goff
QB · DET
NO @ DETPassing Yards260.5276.1+15.656%50%+5.5 pp+0.110u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Jared Goff
QB · DET
NO @ DETPass Attempts33.535.2+1.755%50%+5.3 pp+0.106u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · DET
NO @ DETReceptions6.57.0+0.556%51%+4.9 pp+0.097u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Travis Etienne Jr.
RB · NO
NO @ DETReceptions2.52.5-0.051%47%+4.1 pp+0.086u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Under
Jared Goff
QB · DET
NO @ DETCompletions22.523.8+1.356%52%+3.2 pp+0.061u
complete datamedium conf
Lean Over
Chris Olave
WR · NO
NO @ DETReceptions6.56.4-0.148%46%+2.8 pp+0.061u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Jameson Williams
WR · DET
NO @ DETReceptions3.53.8+0.357%56%+1.5 pp+0.027u
complete datalow conf
Pass
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · DET
NO @ DETReceiving Yards77.583.6+6.155%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Chris Olave
WR · NO
NO @ DETReceiving Yards77.575.0-2.548%
complete datalow conf
Pass
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
NO @ DETRushing Yards119.597.5-22.033%
complete datalow conf
Pass