Props board
Projection vs line, probability vs price. Pass is a legitimate answer.
20 props · 13 actionable · edge is model probability minus implied probability
Week 1 props
Projection, distribution and market comparison. Click a player for their profile.
| Game | Diff | Implied % | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks RB · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Rushing Yards | 25.5 | 36.0 | +10.5 | 72% | 52% | +20.4 pp | +0.395u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| David Montgomery RB · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Rush Attempts | 13.5 | 11.3 | -2.2 | 67% | 49% | +18.7 pp | +0.386u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| David Montgomery RB · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Rushing Yards | 56.5 | 49.3 | -7.2 | 62% | 45% | +16.1 pp | +0.353u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.3 | +0.8 | 65% | 50% | +14.3 pp | +0.285u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Receiving Yards | 27.5 | 34.4 | +6.9 | 64% | 50% | +14.1 pp | +0.284u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.0 | 50% | 37% | +12.8 pp | +0.347u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | 41.1 | +6.6 | 61% | 49% | +11.9 pp | +0.240u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| DJ Moore WR · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.0 | 51% | 44% | +6.9 pp | +0.156u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Receiving Yards | 38.5 | 42.3 | +3.8 | 56% | 50% | +6.5 pp | +0.131u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Khalil Shakir WR · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Receiving Yards | 36.5 | 40.0 | +3.5 | 56% | 50% | +6.1 pp | +0.123u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Rushing Yards | 30.5 | 32.7 | +2.2 | 55% | 50% | +5.6 pp | +0.112u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Completions | 19.5 | 19.2 | -0.3 | 52% | 48% | +3.5 pp | +0.073u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.3 | -0.2 | 56% | 52% | +3.3 pp | +0.064u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| DJ Moore WR · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Receiving Yards | 47.5 | 45.9 | -1.6 | 52% | 50% | +2.7 pp | +0.055u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Completions | 19.5 | 19.7 | +0.2 | 49% | 47% | +1.6 pp | +0.034u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 31.2 | -0.3 | 51% | 50% | +1.3 pp | +0.027u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Rush Attempts | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | 49% | 48% | +0.9 pp | +0.019u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. Stroud QB · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Passing Yards | 221.5 | 221.9 | +0.4 | 50% | 50% | +0.2 pp | +0.003u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Nico Collins WR · HOU | BUF @ HOU | Receiving Yards | 39.5 | 59.3 | +19.8 | 72% | — | — | — | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Josh Allen QB · BUF | BUF @ HOU | Passing Yards | 169.5 | 196.5 | +27.0 | 63% | — | — | — | complete datalow conf | Pass |