Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 8:25 PM · Scheduled · Lincoln Financial Field
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
PHI favoured by 5.5. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 43.5 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
- Cade Alvarez WASQuestionable
QB · WAS · Ribs — Demo injury record for UI development
Questionable at QB — if limited, expect a shorter passing menu and more early-down runs.
Reported 7h ago
- Owen Brooks WASDoubtful
RB · WAS · Hamstring — Demo injury record for UI development
Backfield vacated. The next back absorbs carries and goal-line work; receiving backs gain targets.
Reported 7h ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 3.8 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas GoedertTE | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.3 | 1.4 – 6.2 | 56% | 54% | +2.6 pp | +0.049u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.