New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · EverBank Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
Without a spread the script read is unsupported, so no lean is drawn from it.
No total captured for this game.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
No injuries filed
Both rooms are clean in this dataset.
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | QB | 56.5 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts, Completions, Pass Attempts |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 10.9 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 3.6 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 3.3 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Brenton Strange | TE | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | 2.9 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | Rushing Yards | 20.5 | 30.2 | +9.7 | 10.8 – 49.7 | 74% | 49% | +25.4 pp | +0.523u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | Rush Attempts | 13.5 | 10.9 | -2.6 | 5.0 – 16.9 | 71% | 54% | +16.9 pp | +0.313u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jakobi MeyersWR | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | 43.9 | +9.4 | 12.3 – 75.5 | 65% | 50% | +14.8 pp | +0.297u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | Rushing Yards | 51.5 | 43.8 | -7.7 | 15.6 – 72.0 | 64% | 50% | +13.4 pp | +0.267u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Drake MayeQB | Rushing Yards | 25.5 | 31.0 | +5.5 | 11.0 – 50.9 | 64% | 51% | +12.9 pp | +0.254u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Hunter HenryTE | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.3 | -0.2 | 1.2 – 5.4 | 55% | 44% | +10.4 pp | +0.235u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Brenton StrangeTE | Receiving Yards | 29.5 | 34.6 | +5.1 | 9.7 – 59.6 | 60% | 50% | +10.2 pp | +0.202u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Drake MayeQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.0 | 0.2 – 2.8 | 49% | 40% | +8.9 pp | +0.225u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| DeMario DouglasWR | Receiving Yards | 28.5 | 25.5 | -3.0 | 7.1 – 43.9 | 58% | 50% | +8.6 pp | +0.172u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jakobi MeyersWR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.6 | +0.1 | 1.4 – 5.9 | 53% | 47% | +6.4 pp | +0.135u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Hunter HenryTE | Receiving Yards | 41.5 | 38.1 | -3.4 | 10.6 – 65.5 | 56% | 50% | +6.1 pp | +0.122u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Drake MayeQB | Rush Attempts | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | 2.7 – 9.3 | 58% | 53% | +4.5 pp | +0.084u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Brenton StrangeTE | Receptions | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | 1.1 – 4.8 | 63% | 59% | +3.1 pp | +0.053u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Drake MayeQB | Pass Attempts | 30.5 | 29.9 | -0.6 | 15.2 – 44.7 | 52% | 49% | +2.8 pp | +0.058u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Drake MayeQB | Completions | 19.5 | 20.5 | +1.0 | 10.2 – 30.9 | 55% | 52% | +2.8 pp | +0.053u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| DeMario DouglasWR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.9 | +0.4 | 1.1 – 4.7 | 61% | 58% | +2.7 pp | +0.046u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Drake MayeQB | Passing Yards | 221.5 | 220.2 | -1.3 | 105.3 – 335.1 | 51% | 49% | +1.2 pp | +0.024u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.