Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · Paycor Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
CIN favoured by 3.5. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 50.0 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
No injuries filed
Both rooms are clean in this dataset.
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | QB | 58.6 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 52.2 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
| Chase Brown | HB | 18.6 | — | — | — | — | Receptions, Rush Attempts |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 16.1 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 4.1 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 4.1 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | 3.9 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Cade Otton | TE | 3.8 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | 2.8 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | 2.5 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth GainwellRB | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.9 | +0.4 | 1.5 – 6.4 | 59% | 43% | +16.1 pp | +0.374u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | Rushing Yards | 22.5 | 27.5 | +5.0 | 9.8 – 45.2 | 64% | 50% | +14.2 pp | +0.284u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Jalen McMillanWR | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | 40.0 | +5.5 | 11.2 – 68.9 | 60% | 47% | +13.2 pp | +0.284u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR | Receptions | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | 3.0 – 13.0 | 55% | 44% | +11.4 pp | +0.261u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Chase BrownHB | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | 1.5 – 6.4 | 60% | 49% | +10.7 pp | +0.218u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Cade OttonTE | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.3 | 1.4 – 6.1 | 55% | 45% | +10.6 pp | +0.238u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | Receiving Yards | 22.5 | 25.9 | +3.4 | 7.2 – 44.5 | 59% | 49% | +10.3 pp | +0.211u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Mike GesickiTE | Receiving Yards | 20.5 | 24.3 | +3.8 | 6.8 – 41.7 | 61% | 51% | +9.9 pp | +0.195u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Bucky IrvingRB | Rush Attempts | 14.5 | 16.1 | +1.6 | 7.3 – 24.8 | 59% | 50% | +9.3 pp | +0.188u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Mike GesickiTE | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | 0.9 – 4.1 | 50% | 42% | +8.7 pp | +0.209u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR | Receiving Yards | 47.5 | 43.5 | -4.0 | 12.2 – 74.9 | 56% | 50% | +6.9 pp | +0.139u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Cade OttonTE | Receiving Yards | 31.5 | 35.2 | +3.7 | 9.8 – 60.6 | 57% | 51% | +6.8 pp | +0.135u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Tee HigginsWR | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.4 | -0.1 | 1.7 – 7.1 | 52% | 46% | +6.7 pp | +0.146u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 1.5 – 6.6 | 58% | 52% | +6.1 pp | +0.116u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Chase BrownHB | Receiving Yards | 29.5 | 28.6 | -0.9 | 8.0 – 49.2 | 48% | 43% | +4.7 pp | +0.108u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Chase BrownHB | Rushing Yards | 57.5 | 61.3 | +3.8 | 21.9 – 100.8 | 55% | 50% | +4.5 pp | +0.089u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Joe BurrowQB | Completions | 24.5 | 23.9 | -0.6 | 11.9 – 35.9 | 53% | 48% | +4.2 pp | +0.088u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 1.5 – 6.6 | 59% | 56% | +3.4 pp | +0.061u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Baker MayfieldQB | Completions | 20.5 | 20.4 | -0.1 | 10.1 – 30.6 | 51% | 47% | +3.3 pp | +0.069u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Baker MayfieldQB | Passing Yards | 230.5 | 223.8 | -6.7 | 107.0 – 340.6 | 53% | 50% | +3.2 pp | +0.064u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Jalen McMillanWR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.8 | +0.3 | 1.0 – 4.5 | 58% | 56% | +2.1 pp | +0.038u | sparse datalow conf | Pass |
| Chase BrownHB | Rush Attempts | 14.5 | 14.6 | +0.1 | 6.7 – 22.6 | 51% | 50% | +0.6 pp | +0.011u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Bucky IrvingRB | Rushing Yards | 57.5 | 58.4 | +0.9 | 20.8 – 95.9 | 51% | 51% | +0.5 pp | +0.011u | partial datalow conf | Pass |
| Baker MayfieldQB | Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 31.8 | +0.3 | 16.1 – 47.5 | 51% | 51% | +0.4 pp | +0.008u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Joe BurrowQB | Pass Attempts | 34.5 | 34.8 | +0.3 | 17.6 – 51.9 | 49% | 49% | +0.3 pp | +0.007u | partial datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.