Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · Acrisure Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
CIN favoured by 1.5. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 46.5 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
- Brock Harrow PITLimited
RB · PIT · Hamstring — Demo injury record for UI development
Questionable — treat any volume prop as a live status risk until inactives are posted.
Reported 46d ago
- Silas Whitfield PITLimited
TE · PIT · Shoulder — Demo injury record for UI development
Questionable — treat any volume prop as a live status risk until inactives are posted.
Reported 46d ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 55.3 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron RodgersQB | Passing Yards | 169.5 | 203.1 | +33.6 | 97.1 – 309.1 | 66% | 50% | +15.8 pp | +0.316u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR | Receiving Yards | 74.5 | 62.3 | -12.2 | 17.4 – 107.1 | 64% | 50% | +14.1 pp | +0.283u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Aaron RodgersQB | Pass Attempts | 29.5 | 33.7 | +4.2 | 17.1 – 50.4 | 63% | 50% | +12.7 pp | +0.255u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Aaron RodgersQB | Completions | 19.5 | 21.6 | +2.1 | 10.7 – 32.4 | 60% | 50% | +9.7 pp | +0.193u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Joe BurrowQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | 0.2 – 3.0 | 53% | 48% | +5.0 pp | +0.105u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Chase BrownHB | Rushing Yards | 62.5 | 58.8 | -3.8 | 20.9 – 96.6 | 55% | 50% | +5.0 pp | +0.099u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Joe BurrowQB | Passing Yards | 247.5 | 236.7 | -10.8 | 113.2 – 360.2 | 54% | 50% | +4.2 pp | +0.083u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Chase BrownHB | Receiving Yards | 22.5 | 23.3 | +0.8 | 6.5 – 40.0 | 52% | 50% | +2.8 pp | +0.057u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | Receiving Yards | 23.5 | 23.9 | +0.4 | 6.7 – 41.1 | 51% | 49% | +1.8 pp | +0.037u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| DK MetcalfWR | Receiving Yards | 51.5 | 52.8 | +1.3 | 14.8 – 90.9 | 52% | 50% | +1.8 pp | +0.036u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | Rushing Yards | 57.5 | 56.7 | -0.8 | 20.2 – 93.1 | 51% | 50% | +1.2 pp | +0.023u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.