Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Week 1 · Tue, Sep 15, 12:15 AM · Scheduled · Arrowhead Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
KC favoured by 2.5. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 43.5 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
- Tariq Duval DENQuestionable
WR · DEN · Ankle — Demo injury record for UI development
Questionable — treat any volume prop as a live status risk until inactives are posted.
Reported 7h ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 13.6 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. DobbinsRB | Rush Attempts | 12.5 | 13.6 | +1.1 | 6.2 – 20.9 | 57% | 43% | +14.0 pp | +0.322u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.