Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · Lucas Oil Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
BAL favoured by 3.0. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 48.0 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
QB · BAL · Hamstring — Demo injury record for UI development
Backup under centre. Passing volume and deep attempts usually fall; rushing attempts usually rise.
Reported 6h ago
- Cade Ellison INDQuestionable
RB · IND · Ankle — Demo injury record for UI development
Questionable — treat any volume prop as a live status risk until inactives are posted.
Reported 6h ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | QB | 53.7 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 46.1 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions, Rush Attempts |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 22.1 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts, Receptions |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 17.6 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 4.6 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Alec Pierce | WR | 2.9 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan AllenWR | Receiving Yards | 27.5 | 38.6 | +11.1 | 10.8 – 66.4 | 70% | 50% | +19.9 pp | +0.400u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Lamar JacksonQB | Rushing Yards | 40.5 | 32.8 | -7.7 | 11.7 – 53.9 | 68% | 50% | +17.7 pp | +0.350u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Alec PierceWR | Receiving Yards | 42.5 | 57.5 | +15.0 | 16.1 – 99.0 | 68% | 51% | +17.3 pp | +0.342u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Lamar JacksonQB | Rush Attempts | 6.5 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 2.6 – 8.8 | 63% | 48% | +14.9 pp | +0.311u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Lamar JacksonQB | Completions | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 7.9 – 23.8 | 60% | 46% | +14.5 pp | +0.318u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Mark AndrewsTE | Receiving Yards | 35.5 | 29.4 | -6.1 | 8.2 – 50.6 | 64% | 50% | +14.3 pp | +0.287u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Lamar JacksonQB | Pass Attempts | 26.5 | 24.5 | -2.0 | 12.4 – 36.6 | 58% | 47% | +11.5 pp | +0.246u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Josh DownsWR | Receiving Yards | 46.5 | 41.7 | -4.8 | 11.6 – 71.8 | 58% | 50% | +8.1 pp | +0.162u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | Rush Attempts | 18.5 | 19.4 | +0.9 | 8.8 – 29.9 | 54% | 49% | +5.4 pp | +0.111u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.2 | 1.0 – 4.4 | 56% | 51% | +5.2 pp | +0.102u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Alec PierceWR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.9 | +0.4 | 1.1 – 4.8 | 62% | 58% | +4.3 pp | +0.075u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Daniel JonesQB | Passing Yards | 233.5 | 243.7 | +10.2 | 116.5 – 370.8 | 54% | 50% | +4.1 pp | +0.082u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Tyler WarrenTE | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.1 | 1.8 – 7.5 | 48% | 44% | +3.4 pp | +0.077u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Tyler WarrenTE | Receiving Yards | 45.5 | 48.4 | +2.9 | 13.5 – 83.2 | 54% | 51% | +3.2 pp | +0.062u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Daniel JonesQB | Completions | 22.5 | 21.9 | -0.6 | 10.9 – 32.8 | 53% | 51% | +2.1 pp | +0.041u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Derrick HenryRB | Rush Attempts | 17.5 | 17.6 | +0.1 | 8.1 – 27.2 | 49% | 48% | +1.3 pp | +0.028u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Daniel JonesQB | Pass Attempts | 32.5 | 31.9 | -0.6 | 16.1 – 47.6 | 52% | 51% | +1.3 pp | +0.026u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.