New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · Ford Field
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
DET favoured by 7.0. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 50.0 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
No injuries filed
Both rooms are clean in this dataset.
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | QB | 59.0 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
| Tyler Shough | QB | 31.5 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 21.6 | — | — | — | — | Receptions, Rush Attempts |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Chris Olave | WR | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 3.8 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | 3.1 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | 2.5 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.7 | +0.2 | 1.8 – 7.6 | 54% | 43% | +10.7 pp | +0.248u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | Rush Attempts | 18.5 | 16.9 | -1.6 | 7.7 – 26.1 | 59% | 49% | +10.3 pp | +0.213u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | Receiving Yards | 30.5 | 35.0 | +4.5 | 9.8 – 60.3 | 59% | 50% | +9.1 pp | +0.183u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Juwan JohnsonTE | Receiving Yards | 41.5 | 47.5 | +6.0 | 13.3 – 81.7 | 59% | 50% | +9.0 pp | +0.180u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Devaughn VeleWR | Receiving Yards | 40.5 | 36.3 | -4.3 | 10.1 – 62.4 | 58% | 50% | +8.3 pp | +0.165u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Jameson WilliamsWR | Receiving Yards | 57.5 | 64.6 | +7.1 | 18.1 – 111.1 | 58% | 50% | +8.0 pp | +0.161u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Devaughn VeleWR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.1 | -0.4 | 1.2 – 5.0 | 60% | 52% | +7.7 pp | +0.147u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Tyler ShoughQB | Pass Attempts | 33.5 | 31.5 | -2.0 | 16.0 – 47.1 | 56% | 50% | +6.5 pp | +0.130u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Jared GoffQB | Passing Yards | 260.5 | 276.1 | +15.6 | 132.0 – 420.1 | 56% | 50% | +5.5 pp | +0.110u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Jared GoffQB | Pass Attempts | 33.5 | 35.2 | +1.7 | 17.8 – 52.6 | 55% | 50% | +5.3 pp | +0.106u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR | Receptions | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | 2.6 – 11.3 | 56% | 51% | +4.9 pp | +0.097u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Travis Etienne Jr.RB | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.0 | 0.9 – 4.0 | 51% | 47% | +4.1 pp | +0.086u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Jared GoffQB | Completions | 22.5 | 23.8 | +1.3 | 11.8 – 35.8 | 56% | 52% | +3.2 pp | +0.061u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Chris OlaveWR | Receptions | 6.5 | 6.4 | -0.1 | 2.4 – 10.3 | 48% | 46% | +2.8 pp | +0.061u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Jameson WilliamsWR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.3 | 1.4 – 6.2 | 57% | 56% | +1.5 pp | +0.027u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.