Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · NRG Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
BUF favoured by 1.5. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 44.5 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
No injuries filed
Both rooms are clean in this dataset.
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 50.9 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
| Josh Allen | QB | 25.8 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts, Completions |
| David Montgomery | RB | 11.3 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 4.3 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| DJ Moore | WR | 3.5 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 3.3 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody MarksRB | Rushing Yards | 25.5 | 36.0 | +10.5 | 12.8 – 59.2 | 72% | 52% | +20.4 pp | +0.395u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| David MontgomeryRB | Rush Attempts | 13.5 | 11.3 | -2.2 | 5.2 – 17.5 | 67% | 49% | +18.7 pp | +0.386u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| David MontgomeryRB | Rushing Yards | 56.5 | 49.3 | -7.2 | 17.6 – 81.0 | 62% | 45% | +16.1 pp | +0.353u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Dalton SchultzTE | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.3 | +0.8 | 1.6 – 6.9 | 65% | 50% | +14.3 pp | +0.285u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Kayshon BoutteWR | Receiving Yards | 27.5 | 34.4 | +6.9 | 9.6 – 59.2 | 64% | 50% | +14.1 pp | +0.284u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Josh AllenQB | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.0 | 0.2 – 2.8 | 50% | 37% | +12.8 pp | +0.347u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Dalton SchultzTE | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | 41.1 | +6.6 | 11.5 – 70.8 | 61% | 49% | +11.9 pp | +0.240u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| DJ MooreWR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.5 | -0.0 | 1.3 – 5.6 | 51% | 44% | +6.9 pp | +0.156u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Dalton KincaidTE | Receiving Yards | 38.5 | 42.3 | +3.8 | 11.8 – 72.7 | 56% | 50% | +6.5 pp | +0.131u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Khalil ShakirWR | Receiving Yards | 36.5 | 40.0 | +3.5 | 11.2 – 68.8 | 56% | 50% | +6.1 pp | +0.123u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Josh AllenQB | Rushing Yards | 30.5 | 32.7 | +2.2 | 11.6 – 53.7 | 55% | 50% | +5.6 pp | +0.112u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Josh AllenQB | Completions | 19.5 | 19.2 | -0.3 | 9.6 – 28.8 | 52% | 48% | +3.5 pp | +0.073u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Dalton KincaidTE | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.3 | -0.2 | 1.2 – 5.3 | 56% | 52% | +3.3 pp | +0.064u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| DJ MooreWR | Receiving Yards | 47.5 | 45.9 | -1.6 | 12.8 – 79.0 | 52% | 50% | +2.7 pp | +0.055u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. StroudQB | Completions | 19.5 | 19.7 | +0.2 | 9.8 – 29.6 | 49% | 47% | +1.6 pp | +0.034u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. StroudQB | Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 31.2 | -0.3 | 15.8 – 46.6 | 51% | 50% | +1.3 pp | +0.027u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Josh AllenQB | Rush Attempts | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | 3.0 – 10.2 | 49% | 48% | +0.9 pp | +0.019u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| C.J. StroudQB | Passing Yards | 221.5 | 221.9 | +0.4 | 106.1 – 337.7 | 50% | 50% | +0.2 pp | +0.003u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.