Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · Bank of America Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
CHI favoured by 3.0. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 47.0 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
- Nico Hayes CARDoubtful
QB · CAR · Hamstring — Demo injury record for UI development
Backup under centre. Passing volume and deep attempts usually fall; rushing attempts usually rise.
Reported 6h ago
- Isiah Mercer CARDoubtful
WR · CAR · Shoulder — Demo injury record for UI development
Targets redistribute to the remaining receivers and the tight end; route share rises for the WR3.
Reported 6h ago
- Trey Kingsley CHILimited
RB · CHI · Ribs — Demo injury record for UI development
Questionable — treat any volume prop as a live status risk until inactives are posted.
Reported 6h ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | 51.7 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
| Bryce Young | QB | 50.7 | — | — | — | — | Pass Attempts, Completions |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 13.6 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 10.8 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 3.9 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 3.5 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Jalen Coker | WR | 3.3 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba HubbardRB | Rush Attempts | 12.5 | 10.8 | -1.7 | 4.9 – 16.7 | 64% | 47% | +17.3 pp | +0.368u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Luther Burden IIIWR | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.9 | -0.6 | 1.5 – 6.4 | 62% | 47% | +15.3 pp | +0.327u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Kyle MonangaiRB | Rushing Yards | 31.5 | 38.9 | +7.4 | 13.9 – 63.9 | 65% | 50% | +14.7 pp | +0.295u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Kyle MonangaiRB | Rush Attempts | 8.5 | 9.2 | +0.7 | 4.2 – 14.1 | 57% | 42% | +14.6 pp | +0.347u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Colston LovelandTE | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | 1.5 – 6.4 | 61% | 47% | +14.2 pp | +0.305u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Chuba HubbardRB | Rushing Yards | 50.5 | 42.6 | -7.9 | 15.2 – 70.0 | 64% | 50% | +14.1 pp | +0.281u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Rome OdunzeWR | Receiving Yards | 39.5 | 47.3 | +7.8 | 13.2 – 81.4 | 62% | 50% | +11.6 pp | +0.231u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Colston LovelandTE | Receiving Yards | 54.5 | 48.4 | -6.1 | 13.5 – 83.3 | 59% | 49% | +9.5 pp | +0.192u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Rome OdunzeWR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | 1.3 – 5.7 | 51% | 42% | +9.3 pp | +0.223u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Luther Burden IIIWR | Receiving Yards | 57.5 | 51.5 | -6.0 | 14.4 – 88.6 | 58% | 50% | +8.2 pp | +0.164u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jalen CokerWR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.3 | -0.2 | 1.2 – 5.4 | 55% | 47% | +7.3 pp | +0.154u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | Completions | 19.5 | 19.2 | -0.3 | 9.6 – 28.8 | 52% | 47% | +4.3 pp | +0.091u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | Rushing Yards | 20.5 | 21.3 | +0.8 | 7.6 – 35.0 | 53% | 49% | +4.0 pp | +0.081u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| D'Andre SwiftRB | Rushing Yards | 60.5 | 63.7 | +3.2 | 22.7 – 104.6 | 54% | 50% | +3.9 pp | +0.079u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Over |
| Bryce YoungQB | Passing Yards | 209.5 | 203.0 | -6.5 | 97.1 – 309.0 | 53% | 50% | +3.1 pp | +0.062u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Jalen CokerWR | Receiving Yards | 40.5 | 38.9 | -1.6 | 10.9 – 67.0 | 53% | 50% | +3.1 pp | +0.063u | partial datamedium conf | Pass |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | Pass Attempts | 32.5 | 32.5 | +0.0 | 16.5 – 48.6 | 50% | 49% | +1.6 pp | +0.032u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Bryce YoungQB | Completions | 19.5 | 19.7 | +0.2 | 9.8 – 29.6 | 49% | 48% | +1.0 pp | +0.020u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Bryce YoungQB | Pass Attempts | 30.5 | 30.9 | +0.4 | 15.7 – 46.2 | 51% | 51% | +0.9 pp | +0.018u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| D'Andre SwiftRB | Rush Attempts | 13.5 | 13.6 | +0.1 | 6.2 – 20.9 | 50% | 49% | +0.8 pp | +0.016u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.