Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · Scheduled · EverBank Stadium
Market summary
The number you have to beat. Nothing here is a model output.
Expected game script
Read this before any prop. Script decides who gets the volume.
JAX favoured by 9.0. Trailing teams throw more; leading teams run more.
Market total 40.0 points.
Pace needs graded team games; none are stored yet for this matchup.
Script is inferred from the captured market number and season averages in the demo dataset — it is a framing device, not a forecast.
Team profile comparison
Season averages from graded games. Efficiency before narrative.
Injuries & role impact
Who is out, and whose volume that frees up.
- Owen Brooks CLEQuestionable
RB · CLE · Knee — Demo injury record for UI development
Questionable — treat any volume prop as a live status risk until inactives are posted.
Reported 6h ago
Weather
Open-Meteo forecast for the kickoff hour. Wind hurts passing volume before it hurts efficiency.
Expected player volume
Opportunity drives props. Volume markets first, efficiency second.
| Player | Pos | Projected volume | Snap % | Route % | Target share | Carry share | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 20.0 | — | — | — | — | Completions |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | 15.2 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | Rush Attempts |
| Parker Washington | WR | 4.0 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 3.8 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
| Brenton Strange | TE | 3.6 | — | — | — | — | Receptions |
Projected volume is the model number for each volume market. Shares are season averages from stored usage rows, not a forecast for this game.
Relevant trends
Sample size is shown because it decides how much this is worth.
Prop opportunities
Projection vs market with the reasons behind the call.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Diff | Range (80%) | Model % | Implied % | Edge | EV / 1u | Quality | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul TutenRB | Rushing Yards | 44.5 | 31.0 | -13.5 | 11.1 – 51.0 | 81% | 50% | +30.7 pp | +0.614u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | Rush Attempts | 8.5 | 6.8 | -1.7 | 3.1 – 10.5 | 72% | 50% | +22.2 pp | +0.445u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Jakobi MeyersWR | Receiving Yards | 38.5 | 45.4 | +6.9 | 12.7 – 78.1 | 61% | 50% | +11.0 pp | +0.221u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | Receiving Yards | 24.5 | 16.7 | -7.8 | 6.7 – 26.7 | 84% | 74% | +9.6 pp | +0.129u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR | Receiving Yards | 38.5 | 45.3 | +6.8 | 12.7 – 78.0 | 61% | 51% | +9.1 pp | +0.177u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | Rushing Yards | 99.5 | 67.1 | -32.4 | 23.9 – 110.3 | 17% | 8% | +8.7 pp | +1.055u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Brenton StrangeTE | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.6 | +0.1 | 1.4 – 5.9 | 53% | 46% | +6.8 pp | +0.148u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Parker WashingtonWR | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | 1.5 – 6.4 | 61% | 54% | +6.6 pp | +0.123u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Under |
| Brenton StrangeTE | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | 39.7 | +5.2 | 11.1 – 68.4 | 59% | 53% | +6.2 pp | +0.117u | complete datahigh conf | Bet Over |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.3 | 1.4 – 6.2 | 43% | 39% | +4.0 pp | +0.104u | complete datamedium conf | Lean Under |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | Rushing Yards | 56.5 | 54.9 | -1.6 | 19.6 – 90.2 | 52% | 50% | +2.3 pp | +0.047u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Trevor LawrenceQB | Completions | 20.5 | 20.0 | -0.5 | 10.0 – 30.1 | 48% | 46% | +1.4 pp | +0.030u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | Rush Attempts | 15.5 | 15.2 | -0.3 | 6.9 – 23.4 | 52% | 51% | +0.6 pp | +0.011u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
| Jerry JeudyWR | Receiving Yards | 24.5 | 28.9 | +4.4 | 8.1 – 49.7 | 39% | 39% | +0.3 pp | +0.009u | complete datalow conf | Pass |
Projections are pregame snapshots stored with their own timestamps. Results are graded separately so the record never benefits from hindsight.
Line movement
Every snapshot is preserved, so opening numbers stay honest.